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Asia and Pacific > Thailand

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Cover Selected Issues Papers
Unpacking the Effects of Trade Policy Uncertainty on ASEAN Economics
Sandile Hlatshwayo
and
Aishwary Trivedi
Trade policy uncertainty (TPU) has reached record highs in recent years. This paper builds granular TPU measures for several ASEAN economies that distinguish between protectionist and trade agreement-based uncertainty, as well as differences between ‘own’-country TPU shocks and third-party TPU shocks (i.e., spillovers from TPU in trading partner economies). It finds that third-party TPU shocks are most detrimental to output per capita through weaker investment and private consumption, and despite improved trade balances. Own protectionist TPU shocks reduce trade balances and raise inflation. In contrast, own agreement TPU shocks are linked to a modest, temporary boost to output, likely reflecting anticipatory investment.
Keywords:
Trade policy uncertainty; ASEAN; protectionism; trade agreements; spillovers; macroeconomic effects; protectionist Tpu; country Tpu shock; IMF staff; Tpu shock; IMF country; Trade policy; Trade balance; Exports; Trade barriers; Global; Asia and Pacific; South America
Cover Policy Papers
The Managing Director's Global Policy Agenda Spring Meetings 2026: Managing Shocks and Transformations
International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
The world faces the spillovers of a new war. In addition to the human toll, the economic effects of the war in the Middle East are global, and will once again hit the poorest and most vulnerable countries the hardest. This comes at a time when policy space has eroded and international cooperation is weaker. The appropriate policy response depends on how the shock propagates through the domestic economy, calling for pragmatism and agility, backed by credible policy frameworks. The IMF stands ready to deploy all its tools to assist the membership. We will support good policymaking—advising also that this new test must not derail essential medium-term priorities—and provide balance of payments financing where needed.
Keywords:
shocks; policy agility; credible frameworks; resilience; transformations; cooperation; AI; inflation; technology; demographic shift; spillovers; fiscal space; IMF strong; Debt Sustainability Framework; policy priority; competition policy; policy framework; balance of payments; policy credibility; Labor markets; Global; Middle East
Cover Policy Papers
Plan d’action mondial de la directrice générale — Réunions de printemps 2026: Gérer les chocs et les transformations
International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
Le monde subit les retombées d’une nouvelle guerre. Outre le bilan humain, les effets économiques de la guerre au Moyen-Orient sont d’envergure mondiale, et, une fois de plus, ils frapperont le plus durement les pays les plus pauvres et les plus vulnérables. Cela survient à un moment où les marges de manœuvre se sont réduites et la coopération internationale a faibli. La réponse des pouvoirs publics appropriée dépend du mode de propagation de ce choc dans l’économie de chaque pays et exige de faire preuve à la fois de pragmatisme et de souplesse, en s’appuyant sur des cadres d’action crédibles. Le FMI se tient prêt à déployer l’ensemble de ses instruments pour aider ses États membres. Nous soutiendrons les politiques économiques bien formulées, tout en rappelant que cette nouvelle épreuve ne doit pas nous écarter de nos priorités essentielles à moyen terme, et nous répondrons aux besoins de financement de la balance des paiements lorsque cela sera nécessaire.
Keywords:
chocs ; souplesse des politiques publiques ; cadres crédibles ; résilience ; transformations ; coopération ; IA ; inflation ; technologie ; transition démographique ; retombées ; espace budgétaire ; FMI fort ; cadre de viabilité de la dette ; priorité de politique publique ; politique de concurrence ; cadre de politique économique ; balance des paiements ; crédibilité des politiques ; marchés du travail ; mondial ; Moyen‑Orient
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Cambodia: Report on the Observance of Standards and Codes—Data Module
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
This paper presents a report on the Observance of Standards and Codes—Data Module for Cambodia. This report evaluates the quality of Cambodia’s macroeconomic statistics based on the IMF’s Data Quality Assessment Framework. While Cambodia’s Statistics Act provides a solid legal foundation, the country currently falls short of the Special Data Dissemination Standard, with 18 of 21 data categories failing to meet required coverage, periodicity, or timeliness. Significant challenges remain, particularly regarding the Consumer Price Index, which relies on expenditure weights over twenty years old, and the absence of quarterly gross domestic product estimates. Institutional constraints at the National Institute of Statistics (NIS) have hindered development, though the 2025 designation of the NIS as a National Public Administration Establishment marks a critical reform. Priority recommendations include expanding data sharing between the NIS, the Ministry of Economy and Finance, and the National Bank of Cambodia, as well as adopting machine-readable formats to improve accessibility. Achieving these standards is essential for enhancing transparency and supporting robust evidence-based policy in Cambodia.
Keywords:
government finance; staff team; priority recommendation; staff report; staff assessment; Data Quality Assessment Framework; Government finance statistics; Consumer price indexes; Data Quality Assessment Framework (DQAF); Monetary statistics
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Lao People's Democratic Republic: 2025 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Lao People’s Democratic Republic
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
The 2025 Article IV Consultation discusses that Supportive external conditions and domestic policy tightening helped stabilize Lao People’s Democratic Republic economic imbalances, though policies eased recently. Supportive external conditions and domestic policy tightening have supported macroeconomic and exchange rate stability and a rapid decline in inflation, though policies have eased recently. Growth is expected to remain strong in the near term but moderate over the medium term. Significant vulnerabilities persist, and risks to the outlook are tilted to the downside. Policies should continue to focus on strengthening economic stability and achieving debt sustainability through tighter monetary policy, greater exchange rate flexibility to allow further accumulation of international reserves, maintaining stronger primary surpluses supported by further improving revenue collection and establishing a sound medium-term debt management and financing strategy, and improving financial oversight. Ambitious yet feasible structural reforms to strengthen the business environment, human capital, and governance are essential to achieving upper-middle-income country status in a sustainable manner.
Keywords:
staff report; People's Bank of China; reference rate; IMF's holding; sector statistics; holdings of currency; Debt sustainability; Debt service; Global; Asia and Pacific
Cover Selected Issues Papers
ASEAN’s Digital Payment Revolution: A New Frontier for Regional Integration, Thailand
Nur M Adhi Purwanto
and
Ying Xu
This study takes stock of recent developments on digital payments in Thailand and ASEAN more broadly, explores the drivers and the potential benefits, analyzes the factors underlying the frequency of digital payment usage, and discusses the relevant policy considerations. ASEAN countries have made significant progress in developing domestic and cross-border digital payments, in line with initiatives to improve regional financial integration. This analysis provides preliminary evidence of potential benefits of advancing regional payment connectivity by increasing local currency usage to strengthen financial resilience and reduce vulnerabilities to external shocks.
Keywords:
Digital payments; Cross-border payments; Fintech; Financial integration; Regional payment connectivity; ASEAN country; e-money payment; payment revolution; issues paper; IMF staff; Digital financial services; Currencies; Payment systems; Credit; Regional integration; Asia and Pacific; Global; East Asia
Cover Selected Issues Papers
Reinvigorating Thailand’s Structural Transformation: Thailand
Armita Behboodi
and
Seunghwan Kim
This paper reviews Thailand’s progress in structural transformation and its recent slowdown. It examines the empirical drivers of structural transformation and quantifies their contributions, with the objective of informing policies to reinvigorate the process.
Keywords:
Structural transformation; Sectoral labor reallocation; Labor productivity; IMF country; issues paper; IMF staff; Seunghwan Kim; employment share; Productivity; Employment; Global; East Asia
Cover Technical Notes and Manuals
Climate Risks: The Role of Financial Regulators and Supervisors
Nila S Khanolkar
,
David L Rozumek
, and
Peter Windsor
The paper explores the role of financial sector regulators and supervisors with respect to climate risks; it discusses (i) the importance of adhering to core mandates and alignment with international standards; (ii) how existing regulatory and supervisory tools and approaches can be leveraged to address climate-related risks, outlining specifically the role of banking, securities and insurance supe rvisors; and (iii) considerations for supervisors in emerging market jurisdictions regarding capacity building.
Keywords:
regulation; supervision; regulator; supervisor; climate risks; climate; emerging markets; climate change; financial sector stability; securities
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Thailand: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This Selected Issues paper reviews Thailand’s progress in structural transformation and its recent slowdown. It examines the empirical drivers of structural transformation and quantifies their contributions, with the objective of informing policies to reinvigorate the process. The analysis highlights several policy priorities to promote structural transformation. Accelerating trade liberalization, including deeper integration into global and regional markets, can facilitate the reallocation of labor toward more productive sectors. Investing in education, particularly at the primary and secondary levels, is essential for building a workforce capable of transitioning to higher-productivity employment. Enhancing financial inclusion and expanding access to credit for productive investments can broaden opportunities to improve labor allocation efficiency. Lessons from regional peers offer valuable insights for effective policy design and implementation. Thailand’s structural transformation has slowed but remains incomplete. With targeted and well-coordinated policies that promote labor movement toward its most productive uses, Thailand can unlock substantial productivity gains—which would provide a much-needed boost to its economic growth.
Keywords:
e-money payment; payment digitalization; payment revolution; employment share; staff team; QR payment standard; Digital financial services; Structural transformation; Productivity; Currencies; Global; Asia and Pacific; East Asia
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Thailand: 2025 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Thailand
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
The 2025 Article IV Consultation discusses that Thailand’s economic growth is estimated to have slowed from 2.5 percent in 2024 to 2.1 percent in 2025, as increasing external and domestic headwinds—including trade policy uncertainty, constrained credit growth, and a slower rebound in foreign tourist arrivals—continued to weigh on activity. A carefully calibrated policy mix—comprising targeted fiscal support anchored on a credible medium-term consolidation strategy, additional monetary loosening, and financial policies to facilitate orderly household debt deleveraging and to address the impaired credit channel—would help support the recovery. In order to reverse the trend of slowing growth, structural reforms should be accelerated to boost productivity and competitiveness, which would also support external rebalancing. The deteriorating external environment underscores the increasing need to improve productivity and competitiveness. Priorities include deepening trade and financial integration, facilitating structural transformation and improving investment efficiency, and advancing export sophistication—alongside efforts to enhance social protection, governance, and climate resilience.
Keywords:
fund holding; exchange rate; fund relation; market forces; consultation cycle; inflation condition; Credit; Inflation; Financial sector stability; Global