This site uses cookies, tags, and tracking settings to store information that help give you the very best browsing experience. Dismiss this warning

Narrow Your Choices

Refine By Countries

Refine By Series

Refine By Language

Refine By Date
—

Refine By IMF Taxonomy

Refine By JEL Taxonomy

Refine by LOC Taxonomy

Refine By THEMA Taxonomy

  • Print
  • Save

Nature > Natural Disasters

You are looking at 1–10 of 465 items for
  • Type: Journal Issue x
Clear All Modify Search
Cover IMF Working Papers
Climate Shocks, Debt Defaults and Investment in Climate Adaptation – Squaring an Impossible Trilemma
Constance de Soyres
,
Emmanuella Obeng
, and
Joanne Tan
Climate disasters tend to be associated with increased sovereign default risk. Countries face an “impossible trilemma”: scale up adaptation investment, keep debt sustainable amidst high borrowing costs and avoid the higher risk of default from delayed adaptation. Using a global panel of disaster event-level shocks, we find that a 1pp increase in disaster related losses as a share of GDP raises the odds of sovereign default by approximately 2-3 percent. An additional US$1 billion in cumulative Official Development Assistance (ODA) is associated with a 0.13 point gain in a country’s adaptive capacity. Using average marginal effects and our predicted margins we then map concessional ODA finance to default probability and translate these relationships into a practical budgeting yardstick for calibrating needed ODA to sovereign default risk reduction targets. In a context of declining ODA, our findings highlight the crucial role of well-designed support in climate adaptation policies.
Keywords:
Climate shocks; sovereign defaults; climate adaptation; concessional finance; IMF working papers; adaptation investment; concessional ODA finance; default probability; Climate change; Climate finance; Natural disasters; Debt default; Global; Sub-Saharan Africa; Central America; Southeast Asia; East Asia; Asia and Pacific; Caribbean
Cover High-Level Summary Technical Assistance Reports
Bangladesh: Technical Assistance on Developing a Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS) at the Bangladesh Bank
International Monetary Fund. Institute for Capacity Development
The Bangladesh Bank (BB), with IMF support, has made significant progress in developing a modern Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS). During 2021–25, Phase I of the technical assistance (TA) project focused on building staff capacity and establishing core analytical tools, including a Bangladesh-tailored Quarterly Projection Model (QPM), alongside initial steps toward integrating these tools into policy processes. Phase I successfully laid the technical foundations for forward-looking monetary policy analysis. Further progress will require strengthening institutional arrangements to fully embed FPAS into decision-making, including reinforcing the Forecasting Team, implementing regular forecast cycles, and enhancing the use of model-based narratives in policy deliberations and communication.
Keywords:
Bangladesh; Forecasting and Policy Analysis; Quarterly Projection Model; Monetary Policy; Transmission Mechanism; Bangladesh-tailored Quarterly Projection Model; Imf publication; technical assistance report; staff of the International Monetary Fund; Policy analysis; report series; Exchange rate arrangements; Exchange rates; Exchange rate flexibility; Monetary transmission mechanism; Monetary policy modelling
Cover Selected Issues Papers
Resilience Through Inclusion: Women and Data-Driven Climate Policies in Rwanda
Maria Gelrud
,
Marina Marinkov
,
Jorge Mondragon
, and
Daniela Viana Costa
Climate shocks represent a recurrent macroeconomic risk for Rwanda, affecting growth, fiscal stability, and household welfare. Gender inclusion is macro-critical to Rwanda’s growth and resilience strategy, shaping the effectiveness of adaptation and fiscal policy responses. Women are highly exposed to these shocks due to their concentration in agriculture and informal employment, as well as more limited access to finance, assets, and coping mechanisms. Using both micro- and macro-level analysis, this paper finds that climate shocks widen gender income disparities and that closing gender gaps enhances the effectiveness of adaptation policies and accelerates post-shock recovery. Rwanda’s data-driven policy tools—climate budget tagging, gender budget tagging, and the dynamic social registry—offer a strong foundation for linking climate and gender objectives within fiscal policy. Strengthening these instruments and promoting women’s participation in the green transition would help sustain resilience, inclusion, and long-term growth.
Keywords:
Climate Change; Disasters; Climate Policy; Gender; issues paper; climate adaptation; IMF country; policies in Rwanda; climate integration; Women; Natural disasters; Wages; Global
Cover High-Level Summary Technical Assistance Reports
The Bahamas: Technical Assistance Project on Debt-Investment-Growth and Natural Disasters (DIGNAD)
Karim Barhoumi
,
Ha Nguyen
, and
Tolga Tiryaki
The technical assistance (TA) scoping mission to Nassau (November 2025) aimed to establish a robust framework for quantifying the macroeconomic impacts of climate-related natural disaster risks in The Bahamas. At the request of the Central Bank of The Bahamas (CBoB), the project focuses on operationalizing the DIGNAD model to assess trade-offs between debt financed resilient infrastructure, fiscal sustainability, and economic growth. The mission evaluated the authorities' readiness to incorporate these risks into medium-term projections and provided hands-on training on DIGNAD. Key outcomes include upgrading the forecasting toolkit to support evidence-based policy design and climate-resilience planning.
Keywords:
Macroeconomic Frameworks; Technical Assistance; Debt-Investment-Growth; Natural Disasters; IMF; Dignad model; Imf publication; forecasting toolkit; technical assistance report; staff of the International Monetary Fund; Fiscal sustainability; Infrastructure; Global
Cover The IMF and Climate Change
The IMF and Climate Change
Miguel de Las Casas
,
Andrea Arevalo Arroyo
,
Kelsie J Gentle
,
Carmen Rollins
, and
Joshua Wojnilower

Abstract

In response to rising macroeconomic risks and strong member demand, the IMF initiated a new approach to the integration of climate-related issues across its surveillance, lending, and capacity development activities with the adoption of its climate strategy in 2021 and the establishment of the Resilience and Sustainability Trust in 2022. This evaluation assesses the first four years of that approach and finds that the IMF’s climate related work has brought significant value added for members, strengthened the Fund’s analyses of the climate policy and macro financial stability nexus, and positioned the Fund as a key institution in this domain while remaining within its mandate. Drawing on extensive analysis and consultations, the evaluation highlights the accelerated institutional learning process undergone and the challenges encountered, including those related to strategic clarity and communications, operational guidance, resourcing, and changing priorities and incentives. The report proposes ways to improve effectiveness and coherence, while informing broader decisions on the future engagement of the IMF on climate-related issues.

Keywords:
Climate; surveillance; lending; capacity development; macrocriticality; Resilience and Sustainability Trust; mandate; RSF arrangement; IMF headquarters; classification exercise; IMF surveillance; country authorities; Climate change; Climate finance; Climate policy; Financial Sector Assessment Program; Global; Caribbean; Africa
Publication Date:
05 Jun 2026
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Growth Effects of Natural Disasters: Evidence From A Novel Global Dataset Over 1970-2023
Ha Nguyen
,
Mehdi Raissi
,
Bruno Versailles
, and
Alice Tianbo Zhang
We construct standardized climate anomalies from daily observations and carefully calibrate physical thresholds to identify storms, floods, droughts, heatwaves, and cold snaps across 196 countries over the period 1970–2023. Using a local projections framework, we estimate the contemporaneous and 2-year effects of each disaster type and collectively on real GDP growth. We find that storms, floods, droughts, and heatwaves significantly reduce growth on impact (by roughly 0.1–0.2 percentage points on average), with the largest effects observed in emerging markets and developing economies. Cold spells have no statistically significant impacts. Our estimations also indicate that the initial drop in GDP growth is often not fully offset by a quick rebound, leaving GDP below the pre-disaster trend in the subsequent two years. Severe disasters impose far larger costs. Catastrophic floods can lower growth by up to 3 percentage points (with once-in-100-year storms or heatwaves reducing growth by ~0.5pp and extreme droughts by ~1pp). By combining the estimated global coefficients with each country’s own disaster intensity, we translate the aggregate results into localized growth effects and cross-check them against estimates from a dynamic heterogenous panel model. Finally, rolling-window estimates indicate that the contemporaneous growth impact of storms and heatwaves has attenuated in recent decades, whereas droughts have become increasingly damaging, reflecting divergent adaptation or even maladaptation and vulnerability trends over time.
Keywords:
Local Projections; Natural Disasters; Economic Growth; IMF working papers; growth effect; contemporaneous growth impact; impact of storm; views of the IMF; Climate change; Agricultural sector; Global
Cover Technical Assistance Reports
The Bahamas: Technical Assistance Report - Technical Assistance Project on Debt-Investment-Growth and Natural Disasters (DIGNAD)
International Monetary Fund. Institute for Capacity Development
This technical assistance report documents a scoping mission to strengthen the authorities’ capacity to integrate climate-related natural disaster risks into macroeconomic analysis in The Bahamas. Conducted at the request of the Central Bank of The Bahamas, the mission assessed existing analytical tools, institutional arrangements, and data practices, identifying gaps in incorporating disaster shocks and debt-investment-growth linkages into forecasting frameworks. The report proposes a multi-stage capacity development program centered on operationalizing the DIGNAD model, including calibration, scenario design, and integration into existing frameworks. The program aims to institutionalize disaster risk analysis, strengthen policy assessment, and support evidence-based macroeconomic management and resilience planning in a highly disaster-prone small island economy.
Keywords:
Macroeconomic Frameworks; Technical Assistance; Debt-Investment-Growth; Natural Disasters; IMF; DIGNAD model; Institute for Capacity Development; Icd department; Imf mission; mission team; policy response; Macroeconomic and fiscal forecasts; Macro-fiscal framework; Tourism; Global
Cover Technical Assistance Reports
Portugal: Technical Assistance Report-Public Investment Management Assessment (PIMA) and Climate PIMA (C-PIMA)
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
This report presents the findings of the Public Investment Management Assessment (PIMA) and the Climate PIMA (C-PIMA) conducted for Portugal at the request of the Ministry of Finance. Despite a variable pattern of public investment in recent decades, Portugal has developed a reasonable level of public infrastructure, much of it delivered through PPPs. This assessment finds that Portugal’s infrastructure governance framework is generally strong but identifies scope for improvement across the lifecycle, especially in strategic planning, multiyear budgeting, project appraisal, maintenance and investment implementation. The complementary Climate PIMA shows progress in integrating climate considerations with scope to further embed climate-sensitive project appraisal and budgeting practices. To enhance investment efficiency and climate resilience, the report recommends strengthening medium-term strategic planning and budgeting, reinforcing Ministry of Finance oversight in early project stages, enhancing project preparation and appraisal practices, streamlining execution processes, continuing to embed climate considerations in investment management and building capacity across the public sector.
Keywords:
Public investment management; infrastructure governance; green public financial management.; Portugal C-PIMA; climate PIMA; assessment team; Imf's Fiscal Affairs Department; Portugal PIMA; Public investment spending; Climate change; Infrastructure; Climate policy; Global; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Liberia: Third Review Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement and Request for an Arrangement Under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Liberia
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper presents Liberia’s Third Review under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) Arrangement and Request for an Arrangement under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility. This paper analyzes recent economic developments and reform progress in an economy experiencing strong growth momentum amid rising external risks. Economic growth accelerated to 5.1 percent in 2025, supported primarily by increased mining production and continued implementation of the government’s ARREST Agenda for Inclusive Development. The authorities maintained sound macroeconomic policies and advanced structural reforms under the ECF arrangement, contributing to robust economic performance. However, worsening global conditions, including elevated oil prices and declining bilateral assistance, have heightened downside risks to economic stability. The study emphasizes the importance of strengthening governance and institutional capacity, particularly through reinforcing the Liberia Anti-Corruption Commission and ensuring transparency in public officials’ asset declarations. Continued implementation of governance diagnostic recommendations is viewed as essential for addressing institutional weaknesses. Additionally, the Resilience and Sustainability Facility arrangement is expected to support climate adaptation measures, improve pandemic preparedness, strengthen collaboration with development partners, and mobilize external financing for sustainable development.
Keywords:
one-off concession payment; revenue windfall; Liberian authorities; support disbursement; Rsf arrangement; Debt sustainability; Global; Central Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Macro-Fiscal Impacts of Post-Disaster IMF Financing: Evidence from a Synthetic Control Approach
Pedro Juarros
and
Junko Mochizuki
The IMF provides macro-stabilizing liquidity when others cannot. The IMF has developed a set of instruments designed to provide rapid financial assistance to countries facing urgent balance of payments needs without requiring a full-fledged economic program, triggered by exogenous natural disasters shocks. We evaluate the impact of IMF emergency financing after natural disaster using a synthetic control method. The results show that IMF post-disaster financing supports a faster GDP recovery, with an implied average IMF post-disaster multiplier larger than 1. The findings suggest strong liquidity and catalytic effects, enabling countercyclical fiscal responses. However, the resulting increase in public debt underscores the need for credible medium-term fiscal plans and post-disaster consolidation to maintain debt sustainability.
Keywords:
IMF; Post-disaster financing; extreme natural disasters; synthetic control; IMF working papers; IMF-post disaster; PostDisaster IMF; IMF emergency; disaster IMF; Natural disasters; Emergency assistance; Disaster aid; Liquidity; Global; Western Hemisphere