This site uses cookies, tags, and tracking settings to store information that help give you the very best browsing experience. Dismiss this warning

Narrow Your Choices

Refine By Topic

Refine By Series

Refine By Language

Refine By Date
—

Refine By IMF Taxonomy

Refine By JEL Taxonomy

Refine by LOC Taxonomy

Refine By THEMA Taxonomy

  • Print
  • Save

Africa > Mali

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 280 items for
  • Type: Journal Issue x
Clear All Modify Search
Cover IMF Working Papers
Military Spending and Crowding-Out Effects: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa
Antonio David
,
Elisee Miningou
,
Rasmané Ouedraogo
,
Makoto Tanaka
, and
Alex Vaval Pierre-Charles
This paper quantifies the effects of increases in military expenditures on education and health spending using local projections and different strategies to identify exogenous changes in military spending based on data for 33 sub-Saharan African (SSA) economies over the period 1990-2023. Specifications with shocks identified through military spending surges and through a fiscal reaction function yield mixed results that typically are neither economically nor statistically significant. But instrumental variables estimates that tackle endogeneity concerns indicate that a one-standard-deviation increase in the share of military spending in total government expenditure reduces the shares of education and health spending by about 1 percentage point over the medium-term. The crowding-out effects tend to materialize sooner for health expenditures, likely because they have a larger discretionary component, while education spending is marked by rigidities. In addition, we find that military spending shocks tend to crowd-out health expenditures when access to international aid is limited, while there is no evidence of crowding-out when aid is relatively amply available. In contrast, it appears that overall debt levels and the state of the business cycle are not significant factors in determining the extent of crowding-out effects of military expenditure.
Keywords:
Military Spending; Crowding-Out; Social Spending; Sub-Saharan Africa; crowding-out effect; spending shock; IMF working papers; spending response; spending surge; development spending; Defense spending; Health care spending; Education spending; Africa; Global; Southern Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Understanding and Forecasting Inflation in Timor-Leste
Kohei Asao
and
Raju Huidrom
This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of inflation in Timor-Leste—a post-conflict, low-income economy and small developing state that is fully dollarized. We find that Timorese inflation was high until about mid-2010 and was strongly influenced by swings in global food prices given its high share of food in the CPI basket and heavy reliance on food imports. But inflation has been relatively low and stable in the past decade relative to peers—a period that also broadly coincided with moderate global food prices. We develop an empirical model for Timorese inflation that distills the role of these underlying drivers, and which can be deployed for forecasting inflation.
Keywords:
Inflation; Phillips curve; Low-Income Country; Fragile and Conflict State; Dollarization; Timor-Leste; forecasting inflation; IMF working papers; Timorese inflation; Phillips curve model; IMF working paper 26/24; Food prices; Agricultural prices; Consumer price indexes; Global; Southeast Asia; Central Asia
Cover IMF Working Papers
Taxing Mobile Money: Theory and Evidence
Michael Barczay
,
Shafik Hebous
,
Fayçal Sawadogo
, and
Jean-François Wen
Mobile money has become a central digital alternative to traditional banking in developing countries, yet several African governments have introduced taxes on mobile money transactions. We develop a model that characterizes how such taxes affect payment choices and generate excess burden. The model predicts that taxation reduces mobile money use, with elasticities shaped by access to substitutes and transaction costs: banked users substitute into formal alternatives, while unbanked users face higher effective costs, making the tax regressive. Taxation also induces substitution into cash, raising informality. We empirically test these predictions using cross-country survey data and novel transaction-level data from Cameroon, the Central African Republic, and Mali. Results show sharp declines in mobile money usage, with stronger responses among the banked. Unbanked and rural users bear a disproportionate burden. We use the empirical estimates to gauge the excess burden of the tax, which we quantify at 35% of revenue—highlighting its significant efficiency cost alongside its regressive impact.
Keywords:
Mobile Money Tax; Financial Inclusion; Transaction Taxes; money tax; IMF working papers; money adoption; money use; novel transaction; Mobile banking; Transaction tax; Effective tax rate; Africa; Global
Cover Selected Issues Papers
The Economic Impact of Uncertainty in Mali
Luc Tucker
Economic uncertainty in Mali has increased over a number of years. Specifically, economic agents have less confidence about predicting the future and see an increased risk of negative outcomes. Heightened policy uncertainty is expected to weigh on GDP growth in Mali by reducing the ability of businesses and households to plan ahead with confidence, which typically results in lower investment and consumption. This paper highlights some ways the authorities in Mali could reduce policy uncertainty, which would create the conditions for stronger GDP growth.
Keywords:
Uncertainty; risk; growth-at-risk; fragility; heightened policy uncertainty; IMF country; issues paper; IMF staff; uncertainty in Mali; Futures; Consumption; Private investment; Global; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Mali: Questions Générales
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Questions Générales
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Mali: Consultations de 2025 au titre de l’article IV-communiqué de presse; rapport des services du FMI et déclaration de l’Administrateur pour le Mali
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
En 2024, le Mali a connu une nouvelle année difficile, marquée par la persistance des attaques sécuritaires, des coupures d’électricité prolongées, une insécurité alimentaire croissante et des inondations catastrophiques, nécessitant l’appui du FMI au titre de la Facilité de Crédit Rapide (FCR) en avril 2025, ainsi qu’un programme de référence. Bien que le GAFI ait récemment retiré le Mali de sa liste grise, les investisseurs perçoivent encore une forte incertitude liée à la mise en oeuvre des réformes minières de 2023, aux arrangements post-sortie de la CEDEAO, ainsi qu’à la suspension des partis politiques et du processus électoral. La situation s’est aggravée avec la fermeture, en janvier 2025, de la plus grande mine d’or du pays en raison d’un litige fiscal lié au nouveau code minier. Les opérations ont récemment été placées sous administration judiciaire pour une période de six mois par décision judiciaire, mais la date d’une reprise complète des activités — et le retour des recettes minières critiques — reste incertaine.
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Mali: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This Selected Issues paper shows how multiple challenges facing Mali over a number of years have increased economic uncertainty. Specifically, economic agents have less confidence about predicting the future and see an increased risk of negative outcomes. Part of that uncertainty is the unavoidable result of exogenous shocks and global economic developments, but some is also due to policy decisions made by the authorities. Heightened policy uncertainty is expected to weigh on gross domestic product (GDP) growth in Mali by reducing the ability of businesses and households to plan ahead with confidence, which typically results in lower investment and consumption. This paper highlights some ways the authorities in Mali could reduce policy uncertainty, which would create the conditions for stronger GDP growth. The authorities could reduce policy uncertainty by setting out medium-term economic plans and demonstrating their commitment to announced reforms. A transparent and detailed medium-term policy framework would provide the basis for strong and sustainable economic growth in Mali and would help households and businesses to plan ahead. For example, setting out expected future corporate tax rates would help businesses to prepare their budgets.
Keywords:
households in Mali; heightened uncertainty; copyright page; world uncertainty Index; Mali authorities; Private investment; Consumption; GDP forecasting; Global; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Mali: 2025 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Mali
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
The 2025 Article IV Consultation discusses that Mali’s economy has shown some resilience despite significant headwinds. Economic growth is expected to reach 5 percent in 2025, supported by strong agricultural production, the start of lithium extraction and continued growth in services. Gross domestic product is expected to expand by 5 percent in 2025, lifted by stronger primary and service-sector output but held back by the gold-mine shutdown, aid cutbacks, and heightened global and domestic uncertainty. With fiscal revenues curtailed, aid flows sharply reduced, and uncertainty high, Mali is forced to do more with less. This means calibrating fiscal tightening that protects growth and shield the poor, stepping up domestic revenue mobilization, improving the quality of spending, and avoiding policy missteps that could exacerbate the situation and jeopardize future growth prospects. Meeting these needs entails clearing structural bottlenecks, managing risks, and re-engaging development partners for concessional support.
Keywords:
WAEMU tariff reform; rate structure; common external tariff; government oversight body; SDR equivalent; development agenda; Debt sustainability; Debt sustainability analysis; West Africa; Global
Cover Selected Issues Papers
Domestic Revenue Mobilization in WAEMU: WAEMU
Ljubica Dordevic
and
Anamaria Maftei
Domestic Revenue Mobilization (DRM) is essential for financing economic and social development and ensuring debt sustainability in WAEMU, particularly in light of rising interest, high security spending, and the prospective reduction in foreign aid. While DRM has generally improved over the past two decades, it remains below the former target and exhibits significant disparities across countries, affected by structural challenges – such as narrow tax bases, limited enforcement capacity, and widespread informality. Strengthening tax policy and revenue administration (by streamlining tax systems, rationalizing exemptions, and improving compliance), supported by enhanced regional oversight and cooperation, is critical to ensuring sustainable revenue mobilization.
Keywords:
WAEMU; revenue mobilization; taxation; tax policy; revenue administration; performance indicator; government tax revenue; WAEMU country; WAEMU revenue; WAEMU region; Corporate income tax; Income tax systems; Personal income tax; Sub-Saharan Africa; Global
Cover Selected Issues Papers
Model-Driven Macrofinancial Policy Analysis in the WAEMU: WAEMU
Knarik Ayvazyan
This quantitative model for Macrofinancial Policy Analysis for the WAEMU was developed to deepen the Fund’s engagement in macrofinancial surveillance in the region. By analyzing unobserved credit cycle dynamics and risks, and emphasizing macrofinancial linkages, the model helps assess the consistency between real and credit cycles, build alternative scenarios, offers medium-term macroeconomic projections, and support macrofinancial policy analysis.
Keywords:
WAEMU; Credit Cycle; Forecasting and Simulations; Monetary Policy; Macroprudential Policy; Macrofinancial Linkages; Capital Ratio; E. model simulation; impulse response; MODEL-DRIVEN MACROFINANCIAL Policy analysis; credit shock; inflation expectation; credit provision; credit growth; Countercyclical capital buffers; Credit; Capital adequacy requirements; Macrofinancial analysis; West Africa