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Middle East and Central Asia > Kyrgyz Republic

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Cover Selected Issues Papers
Informal Economy in the Kyrgyz Republic
Farid Talishli
and
Anvar Muratkhanov
Informality remains a major structural challenge in the Kyrgyz Republic, constraining productivity, inclusive growth, revenue mobilization, and social protection. It reflects a combination of weak human capital, institutional shortcomings, fragmented tax regimes, labor market rigidities, and limited access to finance. This paper argues that reducing informality requires a gradual and comprehensive reform strategy centered on private-sector-led growth. Policy priorities include strengthening governance and institutions, improving the business environment, enhancing tax policy and administration, modernizing labor market and social protection systems, investing in education and skills development, and expanding access to finance while preserving financial stability. Well-sequenced reforms would support sustainable formalization and stronger long-term growth.
Keywords:
Informal Economy; Informal Employment; Labor Markets; Human Capital; Governance; Tax Policy
Cover Selected Issues Papers
Beyond the Policy Rate: A Broader View of Monetary and Financial Conditions, Kyrgyz Republic
Paul H. Kupiec
,
Nasir H Rao
, and
Anvar Muratkhanov
This study assesses the effective monetary stance in the Kyrgyz Republic amid excess liquidity, rapid household credit growth, and elevated inflation pressures. It develops a monthly Financial Conditions Index covering liquidity, market rates, monetary aggregates, credit dynamics, and external financial factors. The results show a marked easing in financial conditions since early 2024, driven by strong credit and money growth and lower market rates, despite a relatively tight policy rate. The findings underscore the need for stronger liquidity management, corridor operations, and targeted macroprudential tools.
Keywords:
Monetary Policy; Interest Rates; Money Supply; Financial Conditions; Liquidity Management
Cover IMF Notes
The Rise of Tokenization: Deciphering New Trends in Payments and Asset Tokenization
Tobias Adrian
,
Tommaso Mancini-Griffoli
, and
Yaiza Cabedo
Tokenization is an area of growing interest in financial services. At its core, it involves issuing assets, recording ownership, and transacting on a blockchain. While simple in concept, its implications for market structure, risk management, inclusion, and public policy are complex. Amid rapid technological change and experimentation, policymakers need to distinguish durable trends from temporary developments. This paper identifies emerging issues most relevant for policy, without prescribing specific choices. It is organized around a three-layer framework: infrastructure, assets, and services. The infrastructure layer covers the rails and rules for settlement; the asset layer includes tokenized money and financial assets such as stablecoins, deposits, CBDCs, securities, and money market funds; and the services layer includes wallets, exchanges, and related applications. This Note focuses on infrastructure and asset-layer developments, while noting how services are evolving in response.
Keywords:
Tokenization; blockchain; governance; stablecoins; central banking; asset tokenization; IMF note; asset layer; blockchain infrastructure; infrastructure layer; Infrastructure; Blockchain and DLT; International reserves; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Kyrgyz Republic: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Selected Issues
Keywords:
staff team; copyright page; Policy recommendation; compliance cost; IMF country; tax fragmentation; Labor markets; Central bank policy rate; Employment; Labor market policy; Europe; Central Asia; Global; Middle East
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Kyrgyz Republic: 2026 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Kyrgyz Republic
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
The Kyrgyz Republic has sustained strong economic growth for the fourth consecutive year. The outlook, is however clouded by significant downside risks. The overall favorable economic performance provides a window of opportunity to accelerate reforms that enhance resilience, strengthen policy buffers, and make room for private sector-led growth.
Cover Departmental Papers
Rethinking Fiscal Policy and Frameworks in the Caucasus and Central Asia
Masud Al Taj
,
Nazim Belhocine
,
Alejandro Hajdenberg
, and
Iva Petrova
This paper evaluates the fiscal frameworks in the CCA and finds significant scope to strengthen fiscal policy along its stabilization, allocation, and sustainability dimensions. Priorities include enhancing automatic stabilizers through reforms to personal income taxation and social protection systems; refining fiscal rules to better accommodate cyclical conditions and strengthen enforcement; and anchoring fiscal planning in credible medium-term expenditure and fiscal frameworks underpinned by realistic macro-fiscal projections. Reinforcing fiscal risk management—including risks associated with state-owned enterprises (SOEs), public-private partnerships (PPPs), financial sector vulnerabilities, and climate-related shocks—will also be increasingly important for safeguarding fiscal space. Improvements in transparency, specifically on fiscal reporting and the coverage of quasi-fiscal activities would strengthen accountability and help policymakers better assess underlying fiscal positions, supporting more effective prioritization and resource allocation. The successful implementation of these reforms would require sustained political commitment, coordinated capacity development, and sustained engagement with international partners. By modernizing fiscal institutions and grounding policy in transparent, forward-looking frameworks, CCA countries can strengthen the countercyclical role of fiscal policy, support private-sector development, and enhance resilience to future shocks. Taken together, these reforms would help the region sustain higher, more inclusive growth and make progress further on its economic transition path.
Keywords:
Fiscal Policy; Fiscal Frameworks; Fiscal Stabilization; Fiscal Risk Management; Fiscal Sustainability; Fiscal Rules; Cca country; Cca countries' spending; fiscal policy effectiveness; State spending; IMF team; Fiscal risks; Fiscal governance; Central Asia; Eastern Europe; Central and Eastern Europe; Asia and Pacific; Europe
Cover Departmental Papers
Central Bank Independence and Monetary Policy Effectiveness in the Middle East, Central Asia and Caucasus
Dmitry Gershenson
,
Omer Faruk Akbal
,
Mohamed Belkhir
,
Rhea Gupta
,
Koba Gvenetadze
,
Ashraf Khan
,
Fei Liu
,
Antonio Manzanera
,
Nasir H Rao
,
Umang Rawat
,
Xiaoqiao Shen
, and
Subir Lall
The subject of central bank independence (CBI) remains a keenly debated topic even decades into its adoption in a growing number of countries. CBI has recently come under renewed scrutiny, including in the Middle East and Central Asia (ME&CA) countries, as pressures for monetary policy to accommodate fiscal needs have intensified. To better inform the debate around CBI, this paper provides the first comprehensive analysis of its role in managing inflation including when subject to shocks, a key indicator on the effectiveness of monetary policies, in ME&CA countries using a novel data set and country deep dives. It further identifies institutional strengths and weaknesses of CBI in ME&CA countries and offers tailored policy recommendations to strengthen CBI.
Keywords:
central bank independence; inflation; monetary policy; macroeconomic resilience; Middle East; Central Asia and Caucasus; cbi reform; IMF team; cbi Subindices; inflation outcome; cbi momentum; cbi reference; IMF tool; Central bank autonomy; Monetary policy frameworks; Central bank legislation; Central bank organization; Price stabilization; Central Asia; Middle East and Central Asia; Asia and Pacific; North Africa
Cover High-Level Summary Technical Assistance Reports
Republic of Kyrgyzstan: Review of Quarterly Projection Model of the National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic
Inter-American Center of Tax Administrations
This technical assistance report summarizes the findings and recommendations from two missions conducted by the International Monetary Fund to the National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic (NBKR) in 2023. The missions aimed to assess and enhance the forecasting performance of the central bank’s core macroeconomic projection tool, which supports its inflation-targeting monetary policy framework. The tool was found to be broadly adequate, with recalibration yielding marginal improvements in forecast accuracy. A new forecast quality monitoring tool was developed and integrated into the forecasting system to track forecast errors and provide early warnings. Key recommendations include investment in continuous human resource development and in the retention of expertise.
Keywords:
National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic; macroeconomic forecasting; central projection tool; inflation-targeting monetary policy framework; forecasting performance; Imf publication; staff forecast; technical assistance report; Monetary policy frameworks; Human capital; Inflation targeting; Job training; Macroeconomic and fiscal forecasts; Inflation
Cover Selected Issues Papers
Kyrgyz Republic: Fiscal Risks from State-owned Enterprises
Natalie Manuilova
,
Anh D. M. Nguyen
, and
Erkeaim Shambetova
State-owned enterprises (SOEs) in the Kyrgyz Republic play a significant role in the economy but also present potential fiscal risks. This paper assesses these risks through both aggregate and firm-level lenses. At the aggregate level, the total amount of liabilities of largest SOEs liabilities amounted to approximately 25 percent of GDP, raising concerns about contingent fiscal liabilities. The firm-level assessment based on key financial indicators - profitability, solvency, and liquidity- confirms vulnerabilities, particularly among large SOEs in the energy sector, where low profitability largely reflects tariffs set below cost-recovery levels. These findings underscore the importance of strengthening SOE oversight, financial transparency, and advancing reforms to mitigate fiscal risks.
Keywords:
Kyrgyz Republic; State-Owned Enterprises; SOEs; Fiscal Risks; SOEs’ financial performance; Kyrgyzstan soes health check; risk threshold; SOE oversight; soes liability; IMF SOE health check tool; Public enterprises; Energy sector; Solvency; Contingent liabilities; Middle East; North Africa; Central Asia; Global
Cover Selected Issues Papers
Potential Output in the Kyrgyz Republic: Kyrgyz Republic
Nasir H Rao
,
Anvar Muratkhanov
, and
Nihal Haider
This paper revisits the potential output of the Kyrgyz Republic considering recent structural shifts and external shocks, including the pandemic and the regional conflict. Utilizing a suite of methodologies – production function, state-space models, and statistical filters – it estimates potential output growth at 5.3 percent, up from around 4.4 percent prior to the pandemic. This increase is primarily driven by capital accumulation and labor force expansion. However, total factor productivity remains below historical averages. The persistently positive output gap points to overheating risks, underscoring the need for counter-cyclical policies and structural reforms.
Keywords:
Potential Output; Total Factor Productivity; Structural Reforms; Output Gap; Capital Accumulation; output gap dynamics; output gap point; TFP series; TFP gain; output gap in the Kyrgyz Republic; Labor markets