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Western Hemisphere > Jamaica

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Cover IMF Working Papers
Mind the Gaps: Caribbean Trade Patterns and the Connectivity Constraint
JaeBin Ahn
,
Nalisa Marieatte
,
Philipp-Leo Mengel
,
David Moore
,
Josefine Quast
,
Qingyu Tao
, and
Hou Wang
This paper analyzes trade patterns across the Caribbean Community (CARICOM)—15 Caribbean countries—and makes three main contributions. First, it provides a unified empirical assessment of Caribbean external connectivity by jointly analyzing goods trade, tourism flows, and cross-border banking linkages within a consistent gravity-model framework. Second, it presents new evidence on the role of physical connectivity—shipping and air transport—in shaping both import source concentration and tourism inflows, drawing on granular bilateral trade, tourism, and flight capacity data. Third, it shows that, while financial connectivity matters in a global context, it is not the primary binding constraint for Caribbean economies; instead, limited physical connectivity emerges as the more decisive factor shaping trade patterns and external vulnerabilities.
Keywords:
International and interregional trade; shipping and air connectivity; concentration; economic integration; travel demand; transportation supply; banking linkages and trade finance; trade vulnerability and resilience; goods trade; trade pattern; banking-trade nexus; trade-finance linkage; IMF working papers; CARICOM economy; Tourism; Trade balance; Trade in goods; Exports; Imports; Caribbean; Global; Sub-Saharan Africa; South America; Central America
Cover Technical Assistance Reports
Suriname: Technical Assistance Report-Macroprudential Framework
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This technical assistance report presents the findings of a CARTAC mission to support the Central Bank of Suriname in developing a comprehensive macroprudential policy framework. The report assesses institutional arrangements, systemic risk conditions, and the existing prudential toolkit, identifying key risks arising from interconnectedness and banking concentration. It highlights the importance of establishing a macroprudential strategy, strengthening governance and inter-agency coordination, and enhancing data and analytical capabilities. The report recommends expanding the macroprudential toolkit—particularly through capital-based and liquidity measures—while emphasizing the need for a phased, capacity-aligned implementation strategy. A central recommendation is the adoption of a formal macroprudential strategy to improve transparency, accountability, and policy effectiveness. Overall, the report provides a structured roadmap to support financial stability and foster sustainable financial sector development in Suriname through a robust and forward-looking macroprudential framework.
Keywords:
Macroprudential policy; Financial stability; Systemic risk; Central Bank of Suriname; Macroprudential framework; Capital buffers; Liquidity risk; Credit growth; Financial sector resilience; Policy coordination; Economic shocks; Financial development.; IMF publication; IMF guidance; Monetary and Capital Markets department; technical assistance provider; liquidity indicator; Financial Stability committee; market infrastructure; banking system development; Credit; Financial sector stability; Countercyclical capital buffers; Global; Caribbean; Africa
Cover Technical Assistance Reports
Suriname: Technical Assistance Report-Strengthening the Fiscal Framework Ahead of the Anticipated Oil Boom
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
This technical assistance report was prepared in response to Suriname’s request for support in strengthening its fiscal framework ahead of the anticipated offshore oil production starting in 2028. The report finds that while Suriname has made significant legal advances by adopting a robust Public Financial Management (PFM) Law in 2024 and revamping the Savings and Stabilization Fund Suriname (SSFS), operationalization of these frameworks remains incomplete due to institutional capacity constraints, delayed secondary legislation, and limited political engagement. The report emphasizes the urgent need to finalize implementing decrees, establish governance bodies, and build macro-fiscal analytical capacity to ensure fiscal discipline and sustainability. Key recommendations focus on accelerating the operationalization of fiscal rules and the SSFS, enhancing the medium-term fiscal framework (MTFF) and medium-term expenditure framework (MTEF), and strengthening the Budget Strategy Paper (BSP) to serve as a credible policy anchor.
Keywords:
Fiscal Framework; Savings and Stabilization Fund Suriname (SSFS); Medium-Term Fiscal Framework (MTFF); Public Financial Management (PFM) Law; Oil Revenue Management.; bureau Suriname; IMF publication; IMF representative; Fiscal Affairs department; IMF Fiscal Affairs Department; Suriname's Medium-Term Fiscal Framework; Fiscal rules; Medium-term budget frameworks; Fiscal law; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
The Bahamas: 2025 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
The 2025 Article IV Consultation discusses that The Bahamian economy has experienced a solid recovery in recent years, boosted by tourism, and steps have been taken to strengthen public finances. Growth is projected to moderate to 1 1/2 percent, in line with the economy’s estimated potential. Public debt is declining but remains elevated, underscoring the need for continued consolidation. Downside risks include a global slowdown that could reduce tourism receipts and the rising likelihood of extreme weather events. On the upside, ongoing public and private tourism‑related infrastructure projects are easing capacity constraints, which could lift both actual and potential growth over time. Policy discussions centered on reinforcing the authorities’ planned fiscal consolidation while addressing supply‑side bottlenecks. Achieving medium‑term fiscal objectives will require revenue‑enhancing tax measures and expenditure reprioritization, alongside careful assessment and mitigation of fiscal risks from public‑private partnerships and climate shocks. Financial sector reforms will support stability and deepen inclusion. In order to unlock higher potential growth, reforms should complement infrastructure investment with greater human capital development, reduced regulatory burdens on businesses, and strengthened resilience to extreme weather events.
Keywords:
IMF staff; Imf executive board; headline inflation; fund relation; exchange rate arrangement; Financial sector stability; External sector statistics; Tourism; Global; Caribbean
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Jamaica: Request for Purchase Under the Rapid Financing Instrument-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Jamaica
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This paper presents Jamaica’s Request for Purchase under the Rapid Financing Instrument (RFI). The Jamaican authorities continue to work on the recovery of essential services in the hardest-hit areas and on reconstruction efforts, with focus on supporting the most vulnerable segments of the population affected by the hurricane. Jamaica’s strong track record of economic reforms has created buffers that are proving invaluable in addressing the economic fallout and reconstruction needs. The most urgent policy priorities are to complete the recovery of essential services in the hurricane-hit areas and ensure rapid and efficient reconstruction efforts. The Government of Jamaica is committed to supporting the most vulnerable segments of the population in hurricane-hit areas and rebuilding of damaged infrastructure. The RFI is the appropriate instrument for Jamaica at this juncture given the urgent balance-of-payments needs facing the country. IMF is confident that the authorities will pursue appropriate policies based on their strong track record and policy commitments as well as a robust institutional framework for macroeconomic management.
Keywords:
Jamaican authorities; Jamaica's authorities look; financing framework; Rfi resource; Rfi disbursement; Natural disasters; Disaster aid; Global; Caribbean
Cover Selected Issues Papers
Evaluating Armenia’s Fiscal Framework
Masud Al Taj
,
Nazim Belhocine
,
Vahram Janvelyan
, and
Ervin Prifti
This paper evaluates Armenia’s fiscal framework, focusing on fiscal rule design and implementation. Despite the 2018 reforms strengthening the Armenia’s fiscal rules, limitations persist: rules are somewhat procyclical and complex, ex-post enforcement is not legally binding, coverage is restricted to central government, and operational flexibility is limited. Armenia’s fiscal rules have served the country well, but further improvements could be considered. Drawing on international best practices, the paper recommends upgrading fiscal rules to improve countercyclicality, simplify design, broaden coverage, and strengthen transparency and enforcement. Proposed reforms include consolidating expenditure rules, formalizing escape clauses, expanding coverage, and empowering independent oversight.
Keywords:
Armenia; Expenditure; Fiscal governance; Fiscal policy; Fiscal rules; Medium-term budget frameworks; Public debt; Public financial management (PFM); IMF country; issues paper; IMF staff; consolidating expenditure rule; expenditure rule; Current spending; Middle East; Central Asia; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Armenia: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This Selected Issues paper evaluates the effectiveness of Armenia’s fiscal framework, with a specific focus on the design and implementation of fiscal rules. Armenia's existing fiscal framework has been effective, but further improvements are necessary to align with international best practices and support the fiscal consolidation outlined in the 2026–28 Medium-Term Expenditure Framework. Key policy recommendations focus on improving the countercyclicality of fiscal rules, such as upgrading the expenditure rule with forecast error adjustments and incorporating structural deficit targets into the balanced budget rule. Simplification is also essential, replacing complex rules with a clearer, more monitorable set, and establishing transparent, well-defined escape clauses to manage economic shocks while preserving discipline. Furthermore, enhancing transparency through legally mandated reporting and consolidating rules in unified legislation is crucial. The framework's coverage should be broadened to include off-budget entities and contingent liabilities. Finally, strengthening enforcement via statutory codification and enhancing institutional oversight, potentially through an independent fiscal council, will bolster the rules' credibility and accountability, supporting Armenia's public finance resilience.
Keywords:
expenditure rule; rule compliance; staff team; IMF country; strength Index; Fiscal rules; Fiscal governance; Current spending; Global; Middle East; Central Asia
Cover Policy Papers
Central Bank Digital Currency: Further Navigating Challenges and Risks
International Monetary Fund
This paper informs the Executive Board about recent developments in central bank digital currency (CBDC), and summarizes the key messages and findings from the third wave of CBDC virtual Handbook chapters published in November 2025. Both retail (rCBDC) and wholesale (wCBDC) CBDC explorations are advancing, with wholesale projects gaining prominence. Countries are in various stages of CBDC development, ranging from near-term issuance to pausing rCBDC efforts due to limited domestic needs. This set of six Handbook chapters covers macro-financial topics including the implications of rCBDCs for (1) financial stability and (2) payments competition; legal and regulatory themes such as (3) selected legal considerations and (4) financial integrity. It draws lessons from (5) payment ecosystem resilience in fragile and conflict-affected states for CBDC, and also sheds light on the emerging area of (6) tokenized reserves. The Handbook, financially supported by the Government of Japan, provides technical frameworks and guidance for policymakers especially in emerging markets, to assess CBDC’s potential and tradeoffs. It is not intended to evaluate CBDC’s overall appropriateness, which is left to policymakers given domestic circumstances.
Keywords:
Central bank digital currency; CBDC Virtual Handbook; macro-financial implications; competition; legal considerations; financial integrity; fragile and conflict-affected states; tokenized reserves; IMF staff; payment system resilience; IMF policy; transparency policy; IMF Policy; Central Bank digital currencies; Financial sector stability; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); International reserves; Global; South America; Central America; Caribbean; Southeast Asia; Pacific Islands; Africa
Cover IMF How To Notes
How to Include the Effects of Rising Temperatures in Long-Term GDP Projections
Samuele Centorrino
,
Emanuele Massetti
,
Mehdi Raissi
, and
Filippos Tagklis
Climate change threatens macroeconomic and financial stability through rising temperatures, shifting precipitation patterns, sea level rise, and more frequent and intense extreme weather, in addition to other factors. To better assess vulnerabilities and future risks, climate change effects should be integrated in long-term macroeconomic projections. This note shows how to include the effect of rising temperatures into long-term GDP projections using a three-step method: (1) estimating macroeconomic effects of rising temperatures from historical data, (2) building temperature change scenarios from climate model simulations, and (3) integrating impacts into long-term GDP projections. The methodology addresses key empirical challenges and can be leveraged to assess the effects of temperature increases on fiscal variables, including public debt. Impact assessments for 171 countries are available in an online Data Appendix.
Keywords:
Rising temperatures; Climate change; GDP projections; Macroeconomic impacts; Temperature adaptation; Fiscal risks; Climate scenarios; IMF Library; temperature scenario; IMF staff members; views of the IMF; warming trend; Macroeconomic and fiscal forecasts; Futures; Macro-fiscal framework; Global
Cover FinTech Notes
Evaluating the Implications of CBDC for Financial Stability
Marco Gross
,
Marcello Miccoli
,
Jeanne Verrier
, and
Germán Villegas-Bauer
How could practitioners assess the domestic financial stability implications of retail CBDC? This chapter identifies six key transmission channels through which CBDC can affect financial stability—either negatively or positively. These channels operate through bank funding and lending, fee income, run risk, information flows, and payment system resilience. This chapter synthetizes findings from existing studies that quantify some of these effects and explores how country-specific characteristics, CBDC adoption, and design features shape outcomes. It also provides practical guidance on analytical tools and models to evaluate financial stability risks and discusses how risks can be contained with appropriate CBDC design and safeguards.
Keywords:
CBDC; financial stability; IMF staff; central bank digital currency; IMF Library; CBDC context; implications of CBDC; Central Bank digital currencies; Financial sector stability; Financial sector risk; Financial statements; Commercial banks