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Europe

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Cover 2026年4月《世界经济展望》
2026年4月《世界经济展望》
戦争の影が差す世界経済
International Monetary Fund

Abstract

最新一期《世界经济展望》指出，全球经济增速放缓，通胀压力再度上升，风险明显偏向下行。为应对中东战事带来的冲击，各国需要采取在各种情景中都具有稳健性的政策。增加国防支出虽可提振中期经济增长，但也会削弱财政和外部可持续性，并可能挤占社会支出。冲突会造成巨大且持久的产出损失。宏观经济稳定、国际支持和国内改革对于持续复苏至关重要。

Keywords:
全球增长；通货膨胀；经济预测；风险；国防支出；经济学视角下的冲突与复苏
Publication Date:
17 Jul 2026
Cover Selected Issues Papers
Portugal’s Productivity Gap vis-à-vis Europe and the United States: A Firm-Level Analysis
Ippei Shibata
Portugal’s large GDP-per-capita gap with the highest-income euro area economies and the US is primarily driven by a productivity shortfall. At the EU level, European leading firms, particularly in the tech sector, trail leading global counterparts in productivity and innovation, partly reflecting far less R&D investment rooted in less reliance on equity. In Portugal, those factors are compounded by a broader lack of dynamism. Firms enter the market small and rarely scale up, resulting in a much smaller economic footprint of young high-growth firms than in European peers and—even more so—the US. This rarer occurrence of “gazelles” in Portugal partly reflects limited access to venture capital and inadequate human capital, as well as tax and regulatory obstacles to firms’ growth. Taken together, this comparative lack of dynamism of leading and young high-growth firms alike explains Portugal’s larger share of small firms. Potential policy remedies include streamlining Portugal’s product market regulations and red tape and improving young firms’ access to long-term risk capital through EU-level initiatives.
Keywords:
Portugal; productivity gap; total factor productivity; firm dynamics; firm scale-up; young high-growth firms (gazelles); venture capital; R&D investment
Cover Selected Issues Papers
Health Spending Efficiency in Portugal: Drivers, Challenges and Reform Priorities
Carolina Bloch
Portugal’s health system is facing increasing spending pressures driven by population aging, constraints in the availability and deployment of health workers, and rising input costs, while access bottlenecks persist. Although health spending levels are broadly comparable to those of peer countries, recent spending growth (particularly in personnel, pharmaceuticals, and outsourced services) has not consistently translated into sustained improvements in access or in operational system performance. This paper analyzes the drivers of health spending growth in Portugal and the scope for efficiency gains, focusing on spending composition, input costs, and institutional and budgetary factors that affect how resources are allocated and used in the health sector.
Keywords:
Portugal; health spending efficiency; public health expenditure; population aging; healthcare workforce; pharmaceuticals; health system reform; spending reviews; fiscal sustainability; SNS
Cover «Перспективы развития мировой экономики», апрель 2026 года
«Перспективы развития мировой экономики», апрель 2026 года
Мировая экономика в тени войны
International Monetary Fund

Abstract

В новом выпуске доклада «Перспективы развития мировой экономики» отмечается замедление роста мировой экономики и возобновление инфляционного давления, при этом баланс рисков устойчиво смещен в сторону ухудшения ситуации. Преодоление потрясений, вызванных войной на Ближнем Востоке, потребует проведения политики, устойчивой к альтернативным вариантам развития мировой ситуации. Наращивание оборонных расходов может повышать темпы роста в среднесрочной перспективе, но при этом ослабляет бюджетную и внешнюю устойчивость и создает риск вытеснения социальных расходов. Конфликты приводят к значительным и долговременным потерям объема производства. Для устойчивого восстановления важны макроэкономическая стабилизация, международная поддержка и внутренние реформы.

Keywords:
рост мировой экономики; инфляция; экономический прогноз; риски; оборонные расходы; экономические аспекты конфликтов и восстановления
Publication Date:
17 Jul 2026
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Euro Area Policies: 2026 Annual Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Member Countries
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
The euro area economy had displayed resilience before the war in the Middle East started. In 2025, GDP growth ran slightly above potential, inflation was close to target for most of the year, the output gap was broadly closed, and the current account surplus narrowed. The external position is assessed as broadly in line with medium-term fundamentals and desirable policies.
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
United Kingdom: 2026 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for United Kingdom
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
The UK economy has remained resilient in recent years, but the war in the Middle East has dampened prospects. Growth will slow down markedly this year, then gradually recover as the shock dissipates. Inflation will rise temporarily, delaying the return to target. Risks are tilted to the downside, notably from a prolonged increase in energy prices and sustained market volatility. The crisis underscores the importance of staying the course and providing policy stability—across macroeconomic management and structural reforms—to anchor confidence and support investment.
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
United Kingdom: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Selected Issues
Cover Selected Issues Papers
The Impact of Artificial Intelligence on Israel’s Labor Market
Ece Ozge Emeksiz
Artificial intelligence (AI)-particularly Generative AI -has the potential to raise productivity but could reshape workplaces across sectors. Using occupational microdata, this paper assesses the potential impact of Generative AI on Israel’s labor market and benchmarks it against selected European economies. The results indicate that most Israeli workers are likely to benefit from AI adoption. However, about one-fifth of the workforce faces high exposure with low complementarity, indicating their vulnerability to displacement. To assist workers at risk of job displacement, a comprehensive lifelong learning strategy—including reskilling, upskilling, and mid-career training—is essential.
Keywords:
Artificial Intelligence; AI; Digitalization; Labor Markets; Israel
Cover Technical Notes and Manuals
BigTech in Financial Services: Emerging Regulatory Considerations
Parma Bains
,
Gabriela E Conde
,
Nobuyasu Sugimoto
, and
Caroline Wu
Large technology firms (BigTech) are increasingly expanding into consumer-facing financial services, particularly payments, credit, insurance, asset management, and financial SuperApps. While their current financial stability implications remain limited in most jurisdictions, rapid growth, especially in emerging market and developing economies, raises new conduct, prudential, and systemic risks. This paper analyzes BigTech business models, key activities, and associated risks, and assesses the adequacy of existing regulatory frameworks. It discusses practical options for supervisors to enhance risk identification, strengthen sector-based and group-wide supervision, expand the regulatory perimeter, improve data protection frameworks, and reinforce domestic and international coordination. No global financial standards apply specifically to BigTech. Given the cross-border nature of BigTech activities, global standards should be developed to facilitate internationally consistent regulation and effective cross-border cooperation.
Keywords:
BigTech; BNPL; conglomerate; emerging market and developing economies; financial stability; fintech; systemic risk; insurance; credit; payments; asset management; regulation; supervision; IMF Technical Notes; emerging market; Monetary and Capital Markets Department; risk identification; BigTech firm; Financial sector stability; Global; South America; Central America; Caribbean
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Niger: Huitième revue de l’accord au titre de la facilité élargie de crédit et de la quatrième revue de l’accord au titre de la facilité pour la résilience et la durabilité; demande d'augmentation de l'access au titre de la facilité élargie de crédit, demande de dérogation sur critère de réalisation non attaint et demande de modification de critère de réalisation-communiqué de presse; rapport des services du FMI et déclaration de l’administrateur pour le Niger
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Le Niger reste confronté à des problèmes de sécurité persistants, à des contraintes institutionnelles et à une extrême sensibilité aux chocs climatiques. En 2025, la situation sécuritaire s’est encore détériorée, les attentats terroristes et le nombre de décès dépassant les niveaux enregistrés jusque-là. De plus, les graves inondations observées en 2024 se sont reproduites en 2025, accentuant la vulnérabilité du pays et mettant à rude épreuve ses finances publiques.
Keywords:
Arriérés; service de la dette; viabilité de la dette; accord au titre de la FEC; reprise économique; huitième revue de l'accord au titre de la Facilité élargie de crédit; conditions de financement; Mondial; performance du programme; accord au titre de la FRD; Afrique de l'Ouest.