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Western Hemisphere > Antigua and Barbuda

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Trinidad and Tobago: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This Selected Issues paper explores different fiscal rule options for Trinidad and Tobago. Trinidad and Tobago’s public finances remain highly dependent on volatile energy revenues, contributing to procyclical fiscal outcomes and a sustained increase in public debt since the late 2000s. These challenges underscore the need for a fiscal framework that reduces exposure to energy price volatility while supporting long-term fiscal sustainability and intergenerational equity. Fiscal rules can play a central role in strengthening the fiscal framework by reinforcing policy discipline and protecting the budget from short-term pressures. Fiscal rules are durable constraints on fiscal policy designed to support fiscal discipline and ensure debt sustainability by placing limits on key fiscal aggregates. Their primary objective is to reduce procyclical biases and guide fiscal policy toward a more sustainable and well-calibrated stance. This note discusses alternative fiscal rule options to strengthen Trinidad and Tobago’s fiscal framework. The results suggest that Trinidad and Tobago is not saving sufficient resource revenues to preserve wealth for future generations.
Keywords:
reform option; diversification effort; policy option; staff team; IMF country; Pensions; Pension spending; Natural gas sector; Aging; Caribbean; Global; Europe; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Working Papers
Mind the Gaps: Caribbean Trade Patterns and the Connectivity Constraint
JaeBin Ahn
,
Nalisa Marieatte
,
Philipp-Leo Mengel
,
David Moore
,
Josefine Quast
,
Qingyu Tao
, and
Hou Wang
This paper analyzes trade patterns across the Caribbean Community (CARICOM)—15 Caribbean countries—and makes three main contributions. First, it provides a unified empirical assessment of Caribbean external connectivity by jointly analyzing goods trade, tourism flows, and cross-border banking linkages within a consistent gravity-model framework. Second, it presents new evidence on the role of physical connectivity—shipping and air transport—in shaping both import source concentration and tourism inflows, drawing on granular bilateral trade, tourism, and flight capacity data. Third, it shows that, while financial connectivity matters in a global context, it is not the primary binding constraint for Caribbean economies; instead, limited physical connectivity emerges as the more decisive factor shaping trade patterns and external vulnerabilities.
Keywords:
International and interregional trade; shipping and air connectivity; concentration; economic integration; travel demand; transportation supply; banking linkages and trade finance; trade vulnerability and resilience; goods trade; trade pattern; banking-trade nexus; trade-finance linkage; IMF working papers; CARICOM economy; Tourism; Trade balance; Trade in goods; Exports; Imports; Caribbean; Global; Sub-Saharan Africa; South America; Central America
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Antigua and Barbuda: 2026 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Antigua and Barbuda
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
The 2026 Article IV Consultation discusses that Antigua and Barbuda’s economic expansion continues. This paper examines recent macroeconomic developments and medium-term policy priorities in an economy experiencing moderate growth and fiscal pressures. Real GDP growth reached an estimated 3 percent in 2025, driven primarily by stronger construction activity despite weaker tourism performance. Growth is projected to moderate slightly to 2.8 percent in 2026 and stabilize around 2.5 percent over the medium term, while inflation is expected to return to 2 percent by end-2026. Although public debt is projected to decline gradually in line with regional debt targets, unresolved arrears and elevated gross financing needs remain significant challenges. The analysis highlights the importance of restoring debt sustainability through improved cash and debt management and a comprehensive arrears-clearance strategy. Strengthening financial sector oversight, enhancing financial intermediation, and improving connectivity and competitiveness are identified as key priorities for resilience and inclusive growth. The study also emphasizes productivity-enhancing reforms and employer-aligned skills development programs to support sustainable long-term economic performance.
Keywords:
food price; staff report; administration system; Fund technical assistance; price-stabilization formula; Credit; Arrears; Credit bureaus; Caribbean; Global; Middle East
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Eastern Caribbean Currency Union: 2026 Discussion on Common Policies of Member Countries-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This paper presents Eastern Caribbean Currency Union’s 2026 discussion on common policies of member countries. The currency union continues to serve as a strong anchor for macroeconomic stability in a shock-prone region, despite emerging pressures. Growth moderated to an estimated 2.8 percent in 2025, supported by construction but increasingly constrained by tourism capacity limits. Growth is projected to moderate further amid elevated downside risks. Real gross domestic product growth is projected to slow to 2.4 percent in 2026 as higher fuel and other import costs triggered by the war in the Middle East weigh on activity alongside binding tourism capacity limits. Strengthening union-wide institutional mechanisms to reinforce fiscal sustainability and resilience is a key policy priority. Deeper policy coordination would help preserve space for public investment and strengthen resilience. Rationalizing costly tax exemptions, especially in tourism, and strengthening social safety nets to reduce reliance on distortionary, untargeted fiscal responses to shocks would improve fiscal performance and efficiency.
Keywords:
Eccu country; country authorities; Eccu member; Cartac mission; Imf executive board; oil price; macroeconomics engagement; disaster preparedness; currency union; credit union; Credit; Financial sector stability; Loans; Caribbean; Global; Middle East
Cover Technical Assistance Reports
St. Kitts and Nevis: Technical Assistance Report-Report on National Accounts Statistics Mission (September 22-October 1, 2025)
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
The IMF-Caribbean Regional Technical Assistance Centre (CARTAC) conducted a technical assistance mission to St. Kitts and Nevis during September 22–October 1, 2025, at the request of the Statistics Division, to support the rebasing of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and strengthen national accounts statistics. The mission reviewed data sources and compilation methods for production based GDP, identified methodological issues affecting the consistency and transparency of estimates, and assisted in developing preliminary rebased estimates using available data. Key areas of focus included construction, accommodation services, manufacturing activities, and government services, as well as the treatment of contract manufacturing and under coverage adjustments. The mission also provided guidance on improving the use of the Household Budget Survey, the Visitor Expenditure Survey, administrative data, and on strengthening volume measurement. Priority recommendations were formulated to support completion of the rebasing exercise, enhance documentation of sources and methods, and improve the sustainability and quality of St. Kitts and Nevis’s national accounts program.
Keywords:
National accounts; Gross domestic product; GDP rebasing; Production based GDP; Supply and use tables; Capacity development.; IMF publication; GDP estimate; price value added; CARTAC mission; statistics department; Financial statements; Fiscal governance; Public expenditure review; Caribbean
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
The Bahamas: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This Selected Issues paper focuses on labor market challenges in The Bahamas. Self-employment and the use of informal work arrangements in some private jobs, particularly in services sectors and construction, are key sources of labor market challenges in The Bahamas. The analysis documents that while the self-employed are especially exposed to vulnerability and informality, informal work arrangements also affect many dependent private workers. Addressing labor market informality in The Bahamas requires easing supply-side constraints, including barriers to business. A decomposition exercise shows that the negative earnings gap of self-employed with respect to private dependent employees is not fully explained by observable characteristics, suggesting a role for differential returns to skills and other structural barriers. Investing in human capital, through the education and training systems, should also be a priority. Limited training opportunities in relatively unstable jobs may create hurdles for workers to fully develop their potential.
Keywords:
labor market indicator; Bahamas' labor market; staff team; copyright page; analyzing Labor income; Employment; Self-employment; Wages; Informal employment; Caribbean
Cover IMF Working Papers
Potential Growth and Productivity in the Caribbean
Alexander Amundsen
,
Sophia Chen
,
Pierre Guérin
,
Sinem Kiliç Çelik
, and
Masahiro Nishida
Medium-term growth prospects of Caribbean countries have weakened in recent years. We examine these trends by providing new estimates of potential GDP growth for the region. Our findings reveal a broad-based decline over time, driven by declining contributions from human capital and total factor productivity. Linking these factors to firm-level data, we identify significant scope for aggregate productivity gains through the efficient reallocation of resources between firms and the removal of firm-level structural obstacles. Addressing issues such as the cost and access to finance, workforce education, tax administration, and business licensing and permits are associated with higher aggregate welfare.
Keywords:
Potential Growth; Allocative Efficiency; Firm-level Analysis; Caribbean; Medium-term growth prospect; IMF working paper 2025/157; productivity in the Caribbean; growth accounting exercise; potential GDP growth; Total factor productivity; Productivity; Human capital; Tax administration core functions
Cover Selected Issues Papers
ECCU CBI Programs: Regional Significance and Risks
Janne A Hukka
The Citizenship-by-Investment Programs (CBI) have long been recognized in their importance to fiscal revenue in the ECCU, but there is less clarity over their broader economic contributions. At the same time, investor demand in this market can be highly unpredictable, especially as the programs have come under increased international scrutiny. This paper takes stock of recent CBI developments in the ECCU and estimates that total investments under these programs far outweigh those directly contributing to government revenue. This underscores the need for ongoing regional efforts to reduce the CBI programs’ risk susceptibility as well as to strengthen management of residual risks, including through: (i) clearer provisions for CBI revenues’ budget use to mitigate fiscal risks; and (ii) enhanced transparency standards and ex-post assessments of CBI projects to inform regional best practices, assessments of the program’s systemic significance, and development of contingency plans.
Keywords:
Caribbean; ECCU; Citizenship-by-Investment; Foreign Direct Investment; Non-tax Government Revenue; CBI programs' risk susceptibility; CBI reform initiative; government CBI revenue; post assessments of CBI; CBI investment option; Contingency planning; Monetary unions; Tourism
Cover Selected Issues Papers
Property Insurance Challenges in the ECCU: ECCU
Janne A Hukka
and
Jonas Nauerz
Property insurance affordability presents a growing challenge for the ECCU. With a high reliance on global reinsurance to manage risks in high-exposure products like property, the recent tightening of global reinsurance market conditions has largely passed through to local premiums and constrained capacity to extend coverage. The rising costs exacerbate the already acute non-and under-insurance challenges in the region. These can worsen the economic and fiscal impacts of natural disasters and, if further exacerbated, raise broader macro-financial stability risks by weakening asset quality and credit conditions. Enhancing the ECCU’S readiness to manage these risks calls for concerted efforts to strengthen insurance data collection, risk analysis, and regional supervision. These would inform the appropriate design and calibration of policies to help close protection gaps, contain future market pressures, and mitigate broader financial system risks.
Keywords:
Caribbean; ECCU; Property Insurance; Insurance Premium; Financial Supervision; insurance data collection; market condition; challenges in the region; risk analysis; Insurance; Insurance companies; Global
Cover Selected Issues Papers
Fiscal Sustainability and Natural Disaster Risks in the ECCU: ECCU
Sophia Chen
,
SPENCER SIEGEL
, and
Camilo E Tovar Mora
ECCU countries are highly vulnerable to recurring and increasingly severe natural disasters. Evidence suggests that severe natural disaster have negative impacts on fiscal balances and debt in the region. This underscores the need for comprehensive disaster resilience strategies to mitigate immediate economic losses, finance post-disaster needs, and safeguard fiscal sustainability.
Keywords:
Caribbean; ECCU; Fiscal Sustainability; Natural Disasters; natural disaster risk; Western Hemisphere department; ECCU member states; ECCU country; finance post-disaster; Fiscal stance; Fiscal stabilization