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Archived Series > IMF Staff Papers

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Cover IMF Staff Papers
IMF Staff Papers, Volume 57, No. 2
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
This paper introduces a new database of financial reforms covering 91 economies over 1973-2005. It describes the content of the database, the information sources utilized, and the coding rules used to create an index of financial reform. It also compares the database with other measures of financial liberalization, provides descriptive statistics, and discusses some possible applications. The database provides a multifaceted measure of reform, covering seven aspects of financial sector policy. Along each dimension the database provides a graded (rather than a binary) score, and allows for reversals.
Keywords:
SP; FDI inflow; inflation expectation; trade liberalization; liberalization date; remittance shock; Bank credit; Foreign direct investment; Trade liberalization; Inflation; Real interest rates; East Asia; Global; Africa; Middle East; Southeast Asia; Trade balance; ReformsEmerging market business cycles; remittance FluctuationsStructural reform
Cover IMF Staff Papers
IMF Staff Papers, Volume 57, No. 1
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Do highly indebted countries suffer from a debt overhang? Can debt relief foster their growth rates? To answer these important questions, this article looks at how the debt-growth relation varies with indebtedness levels, as well as with the quality of policies and institutions, in a panel of developing countries. The main findings are that, in countries with good policies and institutions, there is evidence of debt overhang when the net present value of debt rises above 20–25 percent of GDP; however, debt becomes irrelevant above 70–80 percent. In countries with bad policies and institutions, thresholds appear to be lower, but the evidence of debt overhang is weaker and we cannot rule out that debt is always irrelevant. Indeed, in such countries, as well as in countries with high indebtedness levels, investment does not depend on debt levels. The analysis suggests that not all countries are likely to profit from debt relief, and thus that a one-size-fits-all debt relief approach might not be the most appropriate one.
Keywords:
SP; growth country; capital flow; resource revenue; asterisked country; sub-Saharan Africa country; Domestic debt; Capital flows; Consumption; Debt burden; Private capital flows; Sub-Saharan Africa; Africa; Global; East Asia; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Papers
IMF Staff Papers, Volume 56, No. 4
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
This paper empirically evaluates four types of costs that may result from an international sovereign default: reputational costs, international trade exclusion costs, costs to the domestic economy through the financial system, and political costs to the authorities. It finds that the economic costs are generally significant but short-lived, and sometimes do not operate through conventional channels. The political consequences of a debt crisis, by contrast, seem to be particularly dire for incumbent governments and finance ministers, broadly in line with what happens in currency crises.
Keywords:
SP; default episode; home terms of trade; terms-of-trade shock; terms-of-trade response; productivity gain; debt projection; Monetary unions; Total factor productivity; Real effective exchange rates; Trade credits; Stock markets; Africa; Global; Caribbean; Baltics; Southeast Asia
Cover IMF Staff Papers
IMF Staff Papers, Volume 56, No. 3
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Studies of the impact of trade openness on growth are based either on crosscountry analysis—which lacks transparency—or case studies—which lack statistical rigor. This paper applies a transparent econometric method drawn from the treatment evaluation literature (matching estimators) to make the comparison between treated (that is, open) and control (that is, closed) countries explicit while remaining within a statistical framework. Matching estimators highlight that common cross-country evidence is based on rather far-fetched country comparisons, which stem from the lack of common support of treated and control countries in the covariate space. The paper therefore advocates paying more attention to appropriate sample restriction in crosscountry macro research.
Keywords:
SP; asset-price shock; consumption growth; net capital flow; current account sustainability; current account position; Current account; Capital flows; Consumption; Current account deficits; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Global; Asia and Pacific; Middle East; Africa; Caribbean
Cover IMF Staff Papers
IMF Staff Papers, Volume 56, No. 2
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
China’s growth performance since the start of economic reforms in 1978 has been impressive, but the gains have not been distributed equally across provinces. We use a nonparametric approach to analyze the variation in labor productivity growth across China’s provinces. This approach imposes less structure on the data than the standard growth accounting framework and allows for a breakdown of labor productivity into efficiency gains, technological progress, and capital deepening. We have the following results. First, we find that on average capital deepening accounts for about 75 percent of total labor productivity growth, while efficiency and technological improvements account for about 7 and 18 percent, respectively. Second, technical change is not neutral. Third, whereas improvement in efficiency contributes to convergence in labor productivity between provinces, technical change contributes to productivity disparity across provinces. Finally, we find that foreign direct investment has a positive and significant effect on efficiency growth and technical progress.
Keywords:
SP; market risk aversion; yen carry trade; financial market liquidity; links carry trades; United States-Japan; financial market condition; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Labor productivity; Financial statements; Spillovers; Capital productivity; Global; Middle East; Caribbean; Asia and Pacific; East Asia
Cover IMF Staff Papers
IMF Staff Papers, Volume 56, No. 1
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
This special issue brings together world-renowned experts to provide a systematic and critical analysis of the costs and benefits of financial globalization. Contributors include Kenneth Rogoff, Maurice Obstfeld, Dani Rodrik, and Frederic S. Mishkin.
Keywords:
SP; financial globalization; country; emerging market country; globalization pose; banking globalization; banking sector globalization; Financial integration; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Financial sector development; Foreign banks; Global; Middle East; Sub-Saharan Africa; North Africa; Central Asia; East Africa
Cover IMF Staff Papers
IMF Staff Papers, Volume 55, No. 3
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
This special issue on exchange rates is drawn from the Eighth Jacques Polak Annual Research Conference held at the International Monetary Fund in Washington in November 2007. The Mundell-Fleming Lecture by Stanley Fischer focuses on exchange rate systems, surveillance, and advice. Jeffrey Frankel and Shang-Jin Wei examine the techniques for estimating de facto exchange rate regimes, while J. Lawrence Broz, Jeffry Frieden, and Stephen Weymouth review survey data to discern exchange rate policy attitudes. In a paper entitled "Fear of Declaring", Adolfo Barajas, Lennart Erickson, and Roberto Steiner try to determine the extent to which markets care about what countries say regarding their exchange rate policies.
Keywords:
SP; exchange rate movement; government balance; exchange rate regime; RR regime classification; regime choice; trade share; regime classification; world GDP; Exchange rates; Exchange rate arrangements; Personal income; Currencies; Exchange rate policy; Africa; Global; East Asia; Middle East; Southeast Asia; Western Hemisphere
Cover IMF Staff Papers
IMF Staff Papers, Volume 55, No. 1
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
In this issue, a team of economists look at approaches to modeling the use of IMF resources in order to gauge whether the recent decline in credit outstanding is a temporary or permanent phenomenon. Era Dabla-Norris and Gabriela Inchauste examine what drives the growth of firms, with a focus on informality and regulations. Evan Tanner and Issouf Samake use a vector autoregression approach to examine the probabilistic sustainability of public debt in Brazil. Mexico, and Turkey. And Rachel Glennerster and Yongseok Shin ask whether transparency pays?that is, does the frequency and accuracy of macroeconomic information released to the public lead to lower borrowing costs in sovereign debt markets?
Keywords:
SP; debt ratio; price; informal firm; wage bill; firm growth; article IV report; export price; Financial statements; Credit; Credit risk; Export prices; Global; Africa; Central Asia; Central and Eastern Europe; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Papers
IMF Staff Papers, Volume 55, No. 2
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
This special issue is devoted to the Global Economy Model (GEM), a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models widely used by the IMF and central banks worldwide to study issues that cannot be adequately addressed with reduced-form econometric models or an earlier generation of macromodels whose dynamic equations were not based on strong choice-theoretic foundations. Douglas Laxton discusses the GEM philosophy and explains how its modelers find solutions to their systems of nonlinear equations. Paolo Pesenti then lays out the structure of model in detail, explaining how the various equations in GEM are derived from individual and firm-level self-interested maximizing behavior and how individual decisions interact with government policy rules. The remaining six papers are specific applications of the GEM structure to a variety of real problems and policy issues.
Keywords:
SP; nominal interest rate; PLPT; energy price; NM economy; oil-importing region; oil price; adjustment cost; Inflation; Oil prices; Consumption; Energy prices; Global; Asia and Pacific; Europe; Central and Eastern Europe
Cover IMF Staff Papers
IMF Staff Papers, Volume 55, No. 4
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
In this issue, John T. Cuddington and Daniel Jerrett from the Colorado School of Mines examine whether metals prices are in a "super cycle" upswing driven by intensive economic growth in China, in particular. Using evidence from U.S. Social Security records, James E. Duggan, Robert Gillingham, and John S. Greenlees look at the empirical relationship between mortality and lifetime income. Pär Österholm and Jeromin Zettelmeyer analyze the effect of external conditions on growth in Latin America, while Junko Koeda presents a debt overhang model for low-income countries. The issue also includes a comprehensive index for Volume 55 (2008) by author, subject, and title.
Keywords:
SP; SBA; global economy model; commodity price; oil price movement; lifetime earnings; iteration method; oil price; price series; Wages; Income; Metal prices; Aging; Global; Europe