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Jacob Rubashkin
@JacobRubashkin
reporter & analyst for
@InsideElections
/ formerly
@NBCNews
,
@cnn
,
@cornellsun
/ Beltway born and raised / say hello: jacob@insideelections.com
JournalistWashington, DCrubashkin.substack.comJoined April 2009
1,672 Following
22K Followers

Jacob Rubashkin’s Tweets

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Jacob Rubashkin
@JacobRubashkin
Me on C-SPAN Sunday: "There is still a slim possibility that Democrats can run the [tossup] table, because there's still a table left to run. The table is still there for Democrats. We're not in a position yet where we see GOP favored in those 218 seats they need for a majority."
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Jacob Rubashkin
@JacobRubashkin
If McNerney doesn’t retire, Dems have two incumbents defending two Biden double digit seats. If Harder doesn’t hop districts, then Dems have a strong incumbent in the tougher seat and have to defend an open seat in slightly more favorable territory. Instead, they drop a CA seat.
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Jacob Rubashkin
@JacobRubashkin
Another example of Democrats damaging their own chances in the House. Jerry McNerney decides to retire, leaving his newly drawn Biden +12 CD9 open. Josh Harder then moved from CD13 to CD9, leaving 13 open. Harder wins CD9 by 10 points but Dems look set to drop the open 13.
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CATargetAlt
@CATargetAlt
#CD13 Update 50.22% - 66,787 - John Duarte (R) 49.78% - 66,195 - Adam Gray (D)
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Jacob Rubashkin
@JacobRubashkin
I kind of buy this but also DeSantis could run in 2052 and still be younger than Biden was when he was elected. Christie is often held up as the exemplar here but his problem was he was capped out at governor as a Republican in a blue state. DeSantis doesn’t have that issue.
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Lyndon Baines Johnson
@lyndonbajohnson
DeSantis has to run. This is his moment and he'll never have another one.
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Jacob Rubashkin
@JacobRubashkin
The biggest margin of victory in a Florida gubernatorial contest since Bob Graham's 65-35 percent beatdown of Skip Bafalis in 1982.
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Greg Giroux
@greggiroux
#FLGOV election results certified: Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) 4,614,307 (59.37%) Charlie Crist (D) 3,106,328 (39.97%) Others 50,876 Total 7,771,511 DeSantis by 1,507,979 votes and 19.40 percentage points floridaelectionwatch.gov/ContestResults
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Jacob Rubashkin
@JacobRubashkin
Feels a little 🤔 to refer to me as "Jacob Rubenstein" three times in an article especially when my actual last name is right there twice in the tweet
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Jacob Rubashkin
@JacobRubashkin
The true power move for Justice would be to switch back to being a Democrat and try to beat Manchin in the primary
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Amelia Knisely
@ameliaknisely
Gov. Justice today said he's "very seriously considering" running for U.S. Senate, though he noted he'd continue as governor for the next two years if he was to run for the 2024 election. "You'll know real soon," he told media today during his Covid-19 press briefing.
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Jacob Rubashkin
@JacobRubashkin
An interesting corollary: If Warnock wins, Biden will be the first president since FDR in 1934 who doesn't lose a single incumbent senator in a midterm. Even past presidents who saw a net gain of Senate seats in midterms, like Trump, also lost incumbents like Dean Heller.
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Jacob Rubashkin
@JacobRubashkin
Here's an interesting tidbit: If CCM, Kelly, and Warnock all hold on, it will be the first time in history that every single incumbent senator running for another term won their primary and their general election. In 1914, none lost a general, but two lost renomination.
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Jacob Rubashkin
@JacobRubashkin
Kind of a fun full circle moment because the first (and one of the only) high-quality, public polls of the 2021 Georgia runoffs -- and really the first moment when I began to view Warnock and Ossoff as slight favorites -- was also an AARP poll by Fabrizio and Hart Research.
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Jacob Rubashkin
@JacobRubashkin
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New Impact (D)/FabrizioWard (R) poll of the GEORGIA RUNOFF for AARP finds: Warnock (D-inc) 51 Walker (R) 47 Among Indys Warnock leads 54-39 Fav/unfav Warnock 51/45 Walker 45/49 Biden 43 approve/54 disapprove 11/11-17, 500 LVs, mixed mode, ±4.4% ajc.com/politics/polit
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Jacob Rubashkin
@JacobRubashkin
The man who subdued the Club Q gunman is a retired Army major with two Bronze Stars, there to watch a drag show with his family — and when the police arrived they tackled him, handcuffed him, put him in a car for an hour and didn’t let him see his family.
nytimes.com
Army Veteran Went Into ‘Combat Mode’ to Disarm the Club Q Gunman
Richard M. Fierro, who served for 15 years in the military, was at the nightclub in Colorado Springs with his family when the gunman opened fire. “I just knew I had to take him down,” he said.
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Jacob Rubashkin Retweeted
Roger Sollenberger
@SollenbergerRC
New fundraising email from NRSC chair Rick Scott asking to help Herschel Walker, who "needs as much support as he can get." But 98% of the money is automatically allocated to the NRSC. Of the remaining 2%, Rick Scott himself gets as much as Herschel does. secure.winred.com/nrsc/ga-runoff
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Jacob Rubashkin
@JacobRubashkin
I’d imagine Biden would also like to find some winning House Republicans jobs in his administration too
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Jonathan Allen
@jonallendc
Biden helping losing House Democrats find jobs in his administration, @PunchbowlNews’ @JakeSherman reports. Couple additional thoughts: * Democrats fumed that Obama did very little of this after 2010 losses. * It’s easier for Biden to do because he lost so many fewer seats.
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Jacob Rubashkin
@JacobRubashkin
Bob Iger just sent a company wide email telling all employees to print out their ten best pages of scripts and bring them to the 15th floor of Disney HQ by 1am for review
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Jacob Rubashkin
@JacobRubashkin
Elon welcoming back Kanye with open arms after the rapper spent the last month going on antisemitic tirades and reporting came out about his years-long obsession with Hitler, and Kanye immediately getting back to antisemitic trolling. What have we learned?
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Jacob Rubashkin
@JacobRubashkin
Pelosi-led Dem leadership has been fairly hostile to primary challenges to incumbents. No reason to think that’ll change w/ Jeffries, but it might be a little awkward, since he began his own House career challenging a venerable incumbent (ultimately forcing him out of the race).
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Jacob Rubashkin
@JacobRubashkin
No idea how any of this turns out but I think the segment of Americans who are tired of Trump — not those who outright oppose him or even dislike him, but are just ready to move on and don’t want him to be a daily presence in their lives — are a consistently underrated factor.
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Jacob Rubashkin
@JacobRubashkin
Who wouldn’t want to get married to the dulcet tones of Richard Ashcroft singing “trying to make ends meet/ you’re a slave to money then you dieeeeeee”
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The Washington Post
@washingtonpost
Official
Naomi, 28, was walked down the aisle by her father, Hunter Biden, and her mother, Kathleen Buhle, to the song “Bitter Sweet Symphony” by the Verve. wapo.st/3AumDVc
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Jacob Rubashkin Retweeted
Nicholas Bogel-Burroughs
@NickAtNews
New on the mysterious murder of 4 Idaho students: • A victim's phone log shows 7 unanswered calls to a boyfriend, who was sleeping, her sister says • Victims may have been stabbed while in their beds • Cops say the 2 surviving roommates aren't suspects
nytimes.com
New Details Emerge in University of Idaho Killings: What We Know
The phone log of one victim showed a series of unanswered calls to her longtime boyfriend the night of the attack in Moscow, Idaho, her sister revealed. The police have not identified a suspect.
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Jacob Rubashkin
@JacobRubashkin
Glad to see Andrew Cuomo found a new gig post-governor
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Dan Roan
@danroan
FIFA President Gianni Infantino at news conference in Doha: “Today I feel Qatari. Today I feel Arab. Today I feel African. Today I feel gay. Today I feel disabled. Today I feel a migrant worker”
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Jacob Rubashkin
@JacobRubashkin
Last time the beagle ad had a clear purpose: push back on the image GOP was painting of Warnock as a radical, fiery, socialist Black preacher. This time, it feels a little more like fan service, since GOP is relying less on Warnock’s record at the pulpit and more in Congress.
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Jacob Rubashkin
@JacobRubashkin
I wrote about the beagle and other ads back in December of last year. “The aesthetic has a clear purpose: to portray Warnock in as non-threatening a light as possible, in contrast to the fire and brimstone of the Republican attack ads.” insideelections.com/news/article/g
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