Testing extinction events and temporal shifts in diversification and fossilization rates through the skyline Fossilized Birth-Death (FBD) model: The example of some mid-Permian synapsid extinctions
- PMID: 38651531
- DOI: 10.1111/cla.12577
Testing extinction events and temporal shifts in diversification and fossilization rates through the skyline Fossilized Birth-Death (FBD) model: The example of some mid-Permian synapsid extinctions
Abstract
In the last decade, the Fossilized Birth-Death (FBD) process has yielded interesting clues about the evolution of biodiversity through time. To facilitate such studies, we extend our method to compute the probability density of phylogenetic trees of extant and extinct taxa in which the only temporal information is provided by the fossil ages (i.e. without the divergence times) in order to deal with the piecewise constant FBD process, known as the "skyline FBD", which allows rates to change between pre-defined time intervals, as well as modelling extinction events at the bounds of these intervals. We develop approaches based on this method to assess hypotheses about the diversification process and to answer questions such as "Does a mass extinction occur at this time?" or "Is there a change in the fossilization rate between two given periods?". Our software can also yield Bayesian and maximum-likelihood estimates of the parameters of the skyline FBD model under various constraints. These approaches are applied to a simulated dataset in order to test their ability to answer the questions above. Finally, we study an updated dataset of Permo-Carboniferous synapsids to get additional insights into the dynamics of biodiversity change in three clades (Ophiacodontidae, Edaphosauridae and Sphenacodontidae) in the Pennsylvanian (Late Carboniferous) and Cisuralian (Early Permian), and to assess support for end-Sakmarian (or Artinskian) and end-Cisuralian mass extinction events discussed in previous studies.
© 2024 The Authors. Cladistics published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Willi Hennig Society.
References
-
- Akaike, H., 1998. Information theory and an extension of the maximum likelihood principle. In: Parzen, K.T.E. and Kitagawa, G. (Eds.), Selected Papers of Hirotugu Akaike. Springer, New York, pp. 199–213.
-
- Alfaro, M.E., Santini, F., Brock, C., Alamillo, H., Dornburg, A., Rabosky, D.L., Carnevale, G. and Harmon, L.J., 2009. Nine exceptional radiations plus high turnover explain species diversity in jawed vertebrates. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 106, 13410–13414.
-
- Allin, E.F. and Hopson, J.A., 1992. Evolution of the auditory system in Synapsida (“mammal‐like reptiles” and primitive mammals) as seen in the fossil record. In: The Evolutionary Biology of Hearing. Springer, New York, pp. 587–614.
-
- Alroy, J., 2015. A more precise speciation and extinction rate estimator. Paleobiology 41, 633–639.
-
- Amson, E. and Laurin, M., 2011. On the affinities of Tetraceratops insignis, an early Permian synapsid. Acta Palaeontol. Pol. 56, 301–312.
MeSH terms
LinkOut - more resources
Full Text Sources
