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. 2021 Nov;2(11):873-885.
doi: 10.1038/s43016-021-00400-y. Epub 2021 Nov 1.

Climate impacts on global agriculture emerge earlier in new generation of climate and crop models

Jonas Jägermeyr  1   2   3 , Christoph Müller  4 , Alex C Ruane  5 , Joshua Elliott  6 , Juraj Balkovic  7   8 , Oscar Castillo  9 , Babacar Faye  10 , Ian Foster  11 , Christian Folberth  7 , James A Franke  6   12 , Kathrin Fuchs  13 , Jose R Guarin  5   14 , Jens Heinke  4 , Gerrit Hoogenboom  9   15 , Toshichika Iizumi  16 , Atul K Jain  17 , David Kelly  11 , Nikolay Khabarov  7 , Stefan Lange  4 , Tzu-Shun Lin  17 , Wenfeng Liu  18 , Oleksandr Mialyk  19 , Sara Minoli  4 , Elisabeth J Moyer  6   12 , Masashi Okada  20 , Meridel Phillips  5   14 , Cheryl Porter  9 , Sam S Rabin  13   21 , Clemens Scheer  13 , Julia M Schneider  22 , Joep F Schyns  19 , Rastislav Skalsky  7   23 , Andrew Smerald  13 , Tommaso Stella  24 , Haynes Stephens  6   12 , Heidi Webber  24 , Florian Zabel  22 , Cynthia Rosenzweig  5
Affiliations

Climate impacts on global agriculture emerge earlier in new generation of climate and crop models

Jonas Jägermeyr et al. Nat Food. 2021 Nov.

Abstract

Potential climate-related impacts on future crop yield are a major societal concern. Previous projections of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project's Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 identified substantial climate impacts on all major crops, but associated uncertainties were substantial. Here we report new twenty-first-century projections using ensembles of latest-generation crop and climate models. Results suggest markedly more pessimistic yield responses for maize, soybean and rice compared to the original ensemble. Mean end-of-century maize productivity is shifted from +5% to -6% (SSP126) and from +1% to -24% (SSP585)-explained by warmer climate projections and improved crop model sensitivities. In contrast, wheat shows stronger gains (+9% shifted to +18%, SSP585), linked to higher CO2 concentrations and expanded high-latitude gains. The 'emergence' of climate impacts consistently occurs earlier in the new projections-before 2040 for several main producing regions. While future yield estimates remain uncertain, these results suggest that major breadbasket regions will face distinct anthropogenic climatic risks sooner than previously anticipated.

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References

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