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. 2008 Apr 8;105(14):5307-12.
doi: 10.1073/pnas.0710058105. Epub 2008 Apr 7.

Massive global ozone loss predicted following regional nuclear conflict

Affiliations

Massive global ozone loss predicted following regional nuclear conflict

Michael J Mills et al. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. .

Abstract

We use a chemistry-climate model and new estimates of smoke produced by fires in contemporary cities to calculate the impact on stratospheric ozone of a regional nuclear war between developing nuclear states involving 100 Hiroshima-size bombs exploded in cities in the northern subtropics. We find column ozone losses in excess of 20% globally, 25-45% at midlatitudes, and 50-70% at northern high latitudes persisting for 5 years, with substantial losses continuing for 5 additional years. Column ozone amounts remain near or <220 Dobson units at all latitudes even after three years, constituting an extratropical "ozone hole." The resulting increases in UV radiation could impact the biota significantly, including serious consequences for human health. The primary cause for the dramatic and persistent ozone depletion is heating of the stratosphere by smoke, which strongly absorbs solar radiation. The smoke-laden air rises to the upper stratosphere, where removal mechanisms are slow, so that much of the stratosphere is ultimately heated by the localized smoke injections. Higher stratospheric temperatures accelerate catalytic reaction cycles, particularly those of odd-nitrogen, which destroy ozone. In addition, the strong convection created by rising smoke plumes alters the stratospheric circulation, redistributing ozone and the sources of ozone-depleting gases, including N(2)O and chlorofluorocarbons. The ozone losses predicted here are significantly greater than previous "nuclear winter/UV spring" calculations, which did not adequately represent stratospheric plume rise. Our results point to previously unrecognized mechanisms for stratospheric ozone depletion.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no conflict of interest.

Figures

Fig. 1.
Fig. 1.
Time evolution of the total ozone column after a 5-Tg soot injection in the upper troposphere at 30°N latitude. Changes in ozone are given as a percent deviation of the integrated column from the control run, or baseline value, as a function of time since soot injection. The global-mean total ozone variation is shown along with zonal-average changes at four specific latitudes (as labeled). Note that the seasonal signal is amplified during periods of strong smoke perturbation, especially at midlatitudes.
Fig. 2.
Fig. 2.
Zonally averaged total ozone deviations from the baseline (in Dobson units) versus latitude as a function of time, for the same conditions as in Fig. 1. Note that the most rapid recovery of the ozone layer occurs at tropical latitudes.
Fig. 3.
Fig. 3.
Annual mean values (solid lines) of the zonally averaged total ozone column amount (Dobson units, DU) are shown as a function of latitude for the control and 5-Tg soot cases during the second year of simulation. The shaded regions indicate the overall range of variation in the zonal average ozone column over the year. The dotted line at 220 DU marks the definition used to identify the current Antarctic ozone hole.
Fig. 4.
Fig. 4.
Time evolution of the global-mean column ozone loss rates for the two catalytic ozone loss cycles most perturbed by the 5-Tg soot injection. Black lines compare the Chapman (odd-oxygen) cycle in the control (dashed) and 5-Tg soot (solid) cases. Red lines compare the odd-nitrogen cycle in the control (dashed) and 5-Tg soot (solid) cases. The vertical axis gives column ozone loss rates in molecules per cm2/s. Time is measured in years since soot injection.
Fig. 5.
Fig. 5.
Global mean time evolution of soot mass and temperature. (a) Time evolution of the total mass of atmospheric soot (Tg) after the injection of 5 Tg (solid line) and 1 Tg (dashed line) into the upper troposphere, with radiative feedback. (b) Time evolution of the vertical profile of calculated soot global mean mass mixing ratio (ppbm, 10−9 kg/kg of air) after the injection of 5 Tg of soot into the upper troposphere, with radiative feedback. (c) Time evolution of the vertical profile of the change in global average temperature (°C) due to the 5-Tg soot injection (soot-control).
Fig. 6.
Fig. 6.
Time evolution of the vertical profile of calculated tropical lower stratospheric vertical wind (mm/s) averaged between 22°S and 22°N for the control run (a), the 5-Tg soot run (b), and the 5-Tg soot run minus the control run (c). In the 5-Tg soot case, vertical winds bringing air up from the tropical troposphere are reduced by more than 50% because of surface cooling.

References

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