The price of a barrel of West Texas Intermediate, the crude oil benchmark grade, had declined steadily for the past four years as new energy sources emerged. But it soared to triple-digit territory in recent months (and has stayed there) due to the impact on supply sources from the war in Iran. Iran is not necessarily a major producer of oil (3% of the global total), but the country has responded to the U.S. attack by effectively closing off the adjacent Strait of Hormuz, through which tankers moving about 20% of the world's oil supply travel. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), and citing the closing, the global supply of oil is expected to decline about 5% in 2026 compared to 2025, while global demand remains essentially steady. So it is little surprise that oil is at $100 per barrel, more than 60% above the lows for the year, and is likely to stay elevated for some time, as attacks have damaged gas fields and refineries in Saudi Arabia and Qatar. For 2026, our oil price forecast now calls for an average of $83 per barrel, up from our prior forecast of $75, and our forecast trading range for 2H26 is $75-$120. This forecast implies a 28% jump in gas prices in 2026 compared to the average price in 2025. Looking ahead, the EIA outlook for 2027 calls for a recovery in supply and ultimately a surplus. If that's the case, oil prices likely will resume a secular downward trend. But that forecast is subject to change, and is highly dependent on the trajectory of the conflict in the Middle East.

Exxon Mobil is the world's largest non-government-owned energy company. It is also one of the world's largest publicly traded companies in terms of market capitalization. It operates globally along the entire hydrocarbon value chain, from energy exploration to end-user product sales and marketing. The company is the biggest refiner and marketer of refined products and has one of the largest chemicals businesses in the world. The company is the result of the 1999 merger of Exxon and Mobil. The shares are a component of the S&P 500 index, and the company employs approximately 61,000 people.

Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, recently described the stock market as moving in 'Toy Story' fashion 'to infinity and beyond.' On Wednesday, the major indices rose another 1.5%-2.1% and printed their second straight upside price gap, this as the AI train continues to roar down the track. Once again, the scorching semiconductor stocks led, ripping 5% higher based on the SMH and SOXX ETFs, as well as the Dow Jones Semiconductor Index. Starting from the largest players, the almost $5 trillion market cap NVDA rose almost 6%, TSM was up 6.4%, AMD 19%, ASML 7%, LRCX 8%, ARM 14%, and ACLS 22%. Electrical component and electronic equipment stocks continued to soar, with GLW up 12%, JBL 10%, FLEX 38%, IPGP 12%, and VECO 25%. Industrials also did well on the back of the airlines, aerospace, commercial vehicles and trucks, and industrial machinery. Two other less-discussed areas of the market that also are benefiting from AI include rare earth and lithium stocks. The VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF (REMX) has soared 38% since March 20, while the Global X Lithium ETF (LIT) has spiked 37% since March 20. Energy (XLE) dropped 4% and exploration & production (XOP) fell 6% as WTI slipped 6%, dropping back to $96/barrel and Brent declined 7% to $102/barrel. Longer-term breadth measures remain terrible considering how far the mega-cap, mid-cap, and small-cap indices have rallied since March 30. Some 58% of S&P 500 stocks are above their 200-day line. For the S&P 100, it is 60%, and for the Nasdaq 100, it is 56%. Typically, these readings are in the 70% to 80%-plus region during strong advances.

Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, recently described the stock market as moving in 'Toy Story' fashion 'to infinity and beyond.' On Wednesday, the major indices rose another 1.5%-2.1% and printed their second straight upside price gap, this as the AI train continues to roar down the track. Once again, the scorching semiconductor stocks led, ripping 5% higher based on the SMH and SOXX ETFs, as well as the Dow Jones Semiconductor Index. Starting from the largest players, the almost $5 trillion market cap NVDA rose almost 6%, TSM was up 6.4%, AMD 19%, ASML 7%, LRCX 8%, ARM 14%, and ACLS 22%. Electrical component and electronic equipment stocks continued to soar, with GLW up 12%, JBL 10%, FLEX 38%, IPGP 12%, and VECO 25%. Industrials also did well on the back of the airlines, aerospace, commercial vehicles and trucks, and industrial machinery. Two other less-discussed areas of the market that also are benefiting from AI include rare earth and lithium stocks. The VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF (REMX) has soared 38% since March 20, while the Global X Lithium ETF (LIT) has spiked 37% since March 20. Energy (XLE) dropped 4% and exploration & production (XOP) fell 6% as WTI slipped 6%, dropping back to $96/barrel and Brent declined 7% to $102/barrel. Longer-term breadth measures remain terrible considering how far the mega-cap, mid-cap, and small-cap indices have rallied since March 30. Some 58% of S&P 500 stocks are above their 200-day line. For the S&P 100, it is 60%, and for the Nasdaq 100, it is 56%. Typically, these readings are in the 70% to 80%-plus region during strong advances.