After a record 70 days with a caretaker cabinet following elections on 26 February, Enda Kenny was re-installed as prime minister of Ireland last Friday (6 May). But he leads a fragile minority government that few commentators expect to last more than two years.

Kenny is backed by 59 MPs from a parliament of 158, scraping past the minimum requirement for a minority government of 58.

Any potential lawmaking achievements now hinge on a commitment from the main opposition party, centrist Fianna Fail – the greatest rival of Kenny’s centre-right Fine Gael – that it will not vote against the government on matters relating to monetary legislation or votes of confidence in the prime minister.

A general election would be called if the government lost votes in either of these two areas.

If Fianna Fail, with 44 MPs, abstains on the key issues, that would leave 55 MPs from other opposition parties – just short of the number needed to trigger a collapse.

The situation is delicate and not helped by the fact that most of the cabinet, including Kenny himself, have been damaged both in confidence and stature by the drubbing they received from the electorate back in February.