Abstract
Climate change poses significant risks to agriculture, particularly in East Asia, a major crop-producing region. This study evaluates the effectiveness of near-term climate predictions in forecasting agricultural thermal conditions in East Asia for up to five years. We compare temperature-based agroclimatic indicators from atmospheric reanalysis data with the first-year prediction of the Decadal Prediction System version 4 (DePreSys4), initialized annually from November 1960 to 2024. Our analysis reveals that first-year predictions accurately represent observed spatial climatological patterns, although trends in agroclimatic indicators based on daily maximum temperature are overestimated. High skill scores are observed in predicting the beginning of the growing season, frost-free days, agricultural hot days, and heat intensity in major cropping regions. However, the end of the growing season is less predictable due to longer lead times. Notably, five-year average predictions show higher skill than first-year predictions due to smoothed interannual variability. These improved climate predictions enable farmers and policymakers to make informed decisions about crop selection and agricultural infrastructure.
摘 要
气候变化能对农业构成重大风险, 尤其是在东亚这一主要农作物产区。 本研究评估了近期气候预测在预报东亚地区长达五年农业热力条件方面的有效性。 我们基于大气再分析数据的气温农业气候指标与年代际预测系统第 4 版 (DePreSys4) 于 1960 年至 2024 年每年 11 月进行初始化的首年预测结果进行了比较。 分析结果表明, 首年预测的结果准确地再现了观测的气候态空间分布, 但基于日最高气温的农业气候指标的趋势被高估。 在主要作物种植区, 生长季开始时间、无霜日、农业高温日以及热强度的预测技巧较高。 然而, 在更长的预测提前期, 生长季结束时间的可预测性较低。 值得注意的是, 由于平滑了年际变率, 五年平均的预测技巧高于首年预测。 这些改进后的气候预测能帮助农民和政策制定者在作物选择和农业基础设施方面做出科学决策。 (翻译人: 相宇航)
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Data and code availability. The ERA5 data were obtained from the C3S web server (https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/). DePreSys4 outputs can be obtained from CMIP6 CEDA portals (https://esgf-ui.ceda.ac.uk/cog/search/cmip6-ceda/).
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Acknowledgements
We thank the UK Met Office for producing and making available their model output, the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) for archiving the data and providing access, and the multiple funding agencies who support CMIP6 and ESGF. This work was supported by a National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) grant funded by the Korean government (MSIT) (Grant No. RS-2024-00342219) and the Korea Meteorological Administration Research and Development Program (Grant No. RS-2025-02313090). S.-Y. JUN and B.-J. PARK were supported by Korea Polar Research Institute (KOPRI) grants funded by the Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries (Grant No. KOPRI PE25010). All authors contributed equally to this work.
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Article Highlights
• Near-term climate predictions enhance forecasting capabilities for agricultural thermal conditions in East Asia.
• Multi-year prediction skill for growing-season length, frost-free days, and heat-related indicators in major cropping regions is evaluated.
• Significantly higher prediction skill for five-year averages supports better decision-making for farming and policy.
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Choi, J., Jun, SY., Son, SW. et al. Near-term Climate Prediction of Agricultural Thermal Conditions in East Asia. Adv. Atmos. Sci. 43, 631–644 (2026). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-025-4471-0
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-025-4471-0