Sabato’s Crystal Ball

Rep. David Valadao (R, CA-22), historically an impressive electoral performer, finished on the wrong end of a lopsided 59%-41% Democratic edge in his district, a large enough primary deficit that he is now an underdog in our ratings.

After this week's primaries, 7 House incumbents have been denied renomination. This is above the postwar average of 6.5 losses, and there are some other potential cases in coming primaries.

This fall, NC-11, a Trump +10 seat in western North Carolina, will be worth watching.

How much of an advantage did Republicans get from redistricting now that the 2026 map appears set?

A trio of Deep South states are moving to join Tennessee in eliminating heavily Black districts. Alabama and Louisiana are aiming to reduce Democrats to a single seat apiece in their delegations, while South Carolina Republican legislators are working to pass a map that could lead to an all-GOP delegation.

Even taking into account a GOP edge from redistricting, big-picture factors will need to improve significantly for Republicans to have a realistic chance to hold the House.

Our best guess is a Republican gain in the high single digits from redistricting, with the potential for that to grow or shrink based on the actual results in several key races.

The House map has taken on a larger GOP bias as a result of redistricting, although when it’s all said and done, the bias by one measure may essentially be the same as it was in 2018, when Democrats easily won the House.

In addition to formalizing nine ratings changes in Florida following the state adopting a new Republican gerrymander, we are making eight other changes.

What the Callais decision may mean, and how the national House map has already changed, or not changed, so far